Painter’s Preview: Clemson at Wake Forest
Clemson enters Week 7 of the College Football season 4-1 and ranked 10th as they focus their sights on a 2-3 Wake Forest team. This contest will be just the second road game of the season for our Tigers in an atmosphere quite different from Florida State’s. Tiger Fans travel well to Winston-Salem every time we play there, and that will not change this year. Clemson hopes to continue their 4-game win streak and their undefeated streak within ACC play against a well-coached Demon Deacon team that carries momentum from a road victory against N.C. State.
Clemson Preview:
Clemson is looking to return to their Offensive onslaughts against Wake Forest this Saturday. After playing their worst game since UGA against the Seminoles, and with hopes to rebound from only scoring 17 points in a win over Wake last season, the Tiger Offense should have a chip on their shoulder for this contest. Last season, Cade Klubnik played one of his worst games of the season through the air against the Deacons throwing for his third lowest passing total. Klubnik threw for a mere 131 passing yards with zero touchdowns or interceptions in route to a 17-12 win (ESPN). Tiger Fans are expecting a high-octane offensive game Saturday with hopes that they will not need to solely rely on their Defense for a win. It is difficult to see a world where Klubnik struggles because of his marked improvement, and Wake Forest has the worst Secondary that Klubnik has faced all season giving up an average of 326.3 passing yds/g (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Cade will have help from the healthiest Receiving Corps that Clemson has had all season with the return of Adam Randall and the full return of Tyler Brown, Clemson’s leading Receiver from last season. Outside of those two players, Antonio Williams will be following up the best game of his career, and he is looking to continue his stellar RS/Sophomore season. Freshmen Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore have both been reasons for the success of Klubnik as they are second and fourth respectively on the team for receiving yards (ESPN). The Clemson passing attack has showcased so many weapons and ways that they can score that it is hard to believe a struggling Wake Forest Secondary will halt the production from Klubnik and crew. Running Back Phil Mafah is coming off of his most productive game of the season last week where he accumulated 25 carries for 154 rushing yards (ESPN). Last week was the production that Tiger Fans expected to see from Mafah at the beginning of the year, but the success and improvement of Cade Klubnik and the Receiving Corps has limited the opportunities for him while also decreasing the reliance the Offense has on Mafah. Expect Mafah to continue his 7.3 yds/carry production on around 10-15 carries this week against the 81st ranked rush defense from the Deacons. The Offensive Line should have the biggest chip on their shoulder entering this contest due their past two mediocre performances. They are set to dominate this Deacon Front that does not rush the passer well or stop the run well, so expect a huge bounce back week for the OL. The Tiger Offense has been successful in protecting the ball so far this year, and that needs to continue on Saturday to ensure they will not be upset.
The Tiger Defensive Starters have been consistently good all season long, but they will have a tough match-up against an underrated Wake Forest Offense. Clemson’s Defense has already been given the recipe on how to fully slow down the Deacon Offense after Ole Miss was able to hold their Offense to just 6 points (ESPN). Clemson so far this season has been successful in creating one-dimension offenses because of their ability to slow down the rushing attack, and that needs to continue on Saturday. Ole Miss was able to takeaway the Deacons rushing attack forcing long third downs that Wake was not able to convert, allowing their defense to get off the field early and often. Clemson’s task will be to follow Ole Miss’s game plan to ensure that they put the Deacons away early by forcing three and outs and getting the ball back to our explosive Offense. This will all start with the Tiger Front 7 limiting the ability for Wake Forest to run the ball. So far this season the starting Tiger Front has been unsuccessful in slowing down the run only twice: 2nd half against UGA and against Stanford. Wake Forest’s Running Back room does not possess the talent that UGA’s had, and Stanford’s rushing attack was bolstered by running the option that was new to our Defense this season. Against all other traditional rushing attacks our Defense has been successful. The Tiger Defensive Line is getting Star Peter Woods back full-time this week; add that addition along side unexpected production from RS/So DE Jahiem Lawson and the DL looks set to continue their dominance started against the Seminoles. The Tiger Defensive Line also has an opportunity to accumulate their most sacks within a game Saturday against an Offensive Line that is 121st in the country in sacks given up (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Clemson’s Linebacker unit has been limited to just Barrett Carter and Wade Woodaz a lot this season in meaningful snaps; however, this game will provide an opportunity for Freshman Sammy Brown to continue his development along other developmental players like RS/Fr Dee Crayton and Sophomore Jamal Anderson. The Clemson Secondary did not play their best game this past weekend against Florida State, but they will have a chance to right the ship against a dangerous passing attack from Wake . The Secondary has been headlined by CB Avieon Terrell and Safety R.J. Mickens so far this season. Both of these players continue to impress as they are the clear tops guys within that room. Cornerback Jeadyn Lukus has been the clear number two within the CB room, but he took a step back against the Seminoles, giving opportunity to Freshman Ashton Hampton who made some good open-field tackles along side a pass deflection. Hampton has already burned his redshirt and is a key depth piece for the Tigers, and it will be interesting to see the continued battled between him and Lukus. Within the other Safety position Khalil Barnes has been a consistent player, but he has not showcased his play-making ability from his Freshman All-American season a year ago. Sherrod Covil Jr. and Shelton Lewis continue to both receive snaps within the Nickelback position; however, neither player has taken that step that puts one over the other. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers switch Barnes back to a Nickelback position allowing for Kylon Griffin or Tyler Venables to step into the other Safety role. For now the Tiger Secondary still has a lot to prove, and they can start this Saturday by slowing down the veteran passing attack from the Deacons.
Wake Forest Preview:
As mentioned above, Wake Forest enters this game 2-3 overall and 1-1 in ACC play, and while this start has not been ideal for the Demon Deacons, they still have an opportunity to turn things around with a chance to upset a top 10 team at home. Wake Forest’s greatest asset is Coach Dave Clawson. Clawson inherited a poor Wake Forest program in 2014, and within 2 seasons Clawson has led the Demon Deacons to be consistent bowl game participants; however, Clawson has struggled the last two seasons (“Sports Reference | Sports Stats, Fast, Easy, and Up-To-Date | Sports-Reference.com”). Expect Clawson to throw everything he has at the Tigers this week to spark a fire under his team to turnaround their season.
On the Offensive side of the ball, the Demon Deacons are led by Transfer RS/Sr Quarterback Hank Bachmeier. Bachmeier, a former Boise State Bronco and Louisiana Tech Bulldog, is a third year starting QB who has totaled 1,313 passing yards, 7 TDs, and 2 INTs so far this season as he has led Wake Forest to averaging 30.6 points per game (ESPN). As a member of Clawson’s Offense, he is on pace for his best season since 2021 with Boise State. Bachmeier is surrounded by an incredibly Veteran Offense that starts only one underclassman (“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services”). Beside Bachmeier in the backfield is Junior Running Back Demond Claiborne. Claiborne has taken the bulk amount of carries within the backfield this season after splitting carries with current Indiana RB Justice Ellison last season. Claiborne is no stranger to the Tiger Defense as he carried the ball 19 times in their last meeting while also being the only Demon Deacon to reach the endzone. Wake Forest’s rushing production has been limited beyond Demond Claiborne’s carries as he is the only player on their roster that averages over 5 yards/carry (ESPN). The Wake Forest Receiving Corps is headlined RS/Sr’s Taylor Morin and Donovan Greene. Both Morin and Greene have been involved in the Demon Deacon passing attack in past seasons as well totaling over 500 yards multiple times; however, the Deacons are entering this weekend without Donovan Greene. The Veteran Receivers have been sparked with some new life with the help of former 3-Star RS/Fr Deuce Alexander. Alexander is a two year player for the Deacons that has given them extra help and life so far this season outside of Veterans Morin and Greene. Alexander looks to be the future star of this Wake Forest Receiving Corps, and it will be interesting to see how his role may be increased with in the absence of Veteran Donovan Greene. Wake Forest’s Offensive weapons are protected by an older Offensive Line that has underperformed so far this season. The Offensive front is ranked 121st in sacks given up per game, and they are ranked 74th in rushing yards per attempt (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Their task does not get any easier this Saturday as they face a notoriously talented Clemson Front 7 that will get after their backfield early and often come noon time. If Wake Forest is going to win this game on Saturday, this Offense will need to flip their script on giveaways per game, and they will need to account for at least their season average of points.
Their Veteran presence does not stop defensively either as the Deacons are only starting 2 underclassman (“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services”). So far this season Wake Forest has struggled mightily, giving up an average of 31 points per game including a 41 point game in a loss to Louisiana Lafayette (ESPN). While the Offense has improved from last season, the Defense has gotten worse despite their veteran presence. Their decline is not surprising either because the Deacons lost 6 out of 10 of their top tacklers from just a year ago. The depth pieces from a year ago have yet to step into their roles, but the Deacons were successful in landing Senior Transfer Linebacker Branson Combs who is third in tackles so far this season for Wake Forest in an attempt to replace production. Ahead of Combs is fellow LB Dylan Hazen and FS Nick Anderson. Hazen was extremely productive for the Deacons last season, leading the team in tackles and was top 4 in TFLs. Hazen has been the clear leader of this Defense for the past two seasons, and his role is extremely important for Wake Forest to upset the Tigers come Saturday. Nick Anderson is another long time contributor for Wake Forest, leading the Secondary behind Hazen. Anderson is a 4 year starter for the Deacons that has totaled 200 total tackles (ESPN). He is a high-motor, gritty Defensive Back that is not afraid to initiate contact with the opposing Offense. With help from these star players, this is the perfect game for the Deacons to flip the script on their season if they are able to limit the opportunities this new explosive Clemson Offense receives; however, the Deacons have a long way to go. They are currently 131st in passing yds/g and 81st in rushing yds/g, and it seems probable that the Clemson Offense is going to have their way against Wake Forest on Saturday. Yet, the Deacons will have a chance for an upset if they are able to create turnovers defensively while their Offense limits them. Currently the Deacons are ranked 43rd in turnovers created per game averaging 1.5, but in order for an upset on Saturday they will need that number to be 2 or 3 (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”).
Keys to a Tiger Victory:
Clean Game Offensively: On paper, the Clemson roster is far superior than Wake Forest’s. The Tigers have also shown their talent throughout their games this season, and it is difficult to see a world where Wake Forest will upset a streaking Clemson team. So far this season, the Tiger Offense has kept the ball secure ranking 12th in the country in giveaways per game averaging only 0.6 (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Upsets begin with turnovers, and if the Tiger Offense starts to turn the ball over early, then it will spark hope within the Deacon team that can lead to an upset. Alabama vs. Vanderbilt last week is a great example. Alabama threw a pick six early in the game that enabled Vanderbilt to gain the confidence that they can upset the former number 1 team in the country. Clemson will need to avoid turnovers to ensure they continue their win streak on Saturday, and it starts with Quarterback Cade Klubnik who is playing his second straight road game.
Get off the Field: This season the Tiger Defense has been pretty successful at getting off the field on third downs allowing opponents to convert an average of only 4.2 third downs a game ranking 20th in the country (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Causing disruption and limiting Wake Forest’s ability to convert on third downs will ensure opportunities for the Tiger Offense to get back to their explosive plays after a down week against the Seminoles. The Tiger Defense needs to set the tone early into this game, and that will be achieved by getting off the field quickly to let Klubnik and Co. light up the scoreboard. The last time Clemson played in Winston-Salem the game was a 51-45 overtime thriller where the Defense could not get off the field. If our Defense cannot limit opportunities given to the Veteran Deacon Offense then the game could end up like it did in 2022.
Redzone Production: Clemson’s Offense unveiled a weakness against Florida State this past weekend that has cursed Quarterback Cade Klubnik since his first start at Clemson. Against the Seminoles, the Tiger Offense was able to reach the red area on 6 different occasions. Clemson was unable to get into the end zone on any of these occasions resorting to field goal attempts on each trip while also allowing two blocked kicks. The Tiger Offense cannot continue allowing these red zone trips to result in field goals. Field Goals will not allow the Tigers to be truly successful against good teams throughout the season, and outside of turnovers, it allows another avenue to be upset. Clemson needs to score a touchdown in at least 75% of their redzone trips to give them a chance at the ACC Championship and success during the College Football Playoffs. These goals can be achieved through the development seen in games like these that can prepare the Tigers for where they can go. Clemson needs to be successful at putting the ball into the end zone in red zone trips to ensure Wake Forest does not stay in the game just as Florida State did.
Tiger Watch: Bryant Wesco Jr.
Bryant Wesco Jr. has showcased his ability to stretch the field on multiple occasions throughout his year. He is averaging a team high 23.8 yards a catch, and I expect that number to increase after this game against the Deacons (ESPN). Because of Wake’s poor Secondary production, Garrett Riley and Cade Klubnik will dial up shot plays early and often just as they did against Appalachian State who is comparable to Wake Forest’s Secondary. These early shot plays have been Wesco’s specialty this season, and I expect him to be target number 1 early for Klubnik to get the show started.
Painter’s Prediction:
Clemson enters their second road game of the season on Saturday, but I do not believe that it will feel like one. Unlike the atmosphere that Clemson faced at Doak Campbell, Clemson Fans will travel well to Winston-Salem. The crowd will likely be split 50-50 or maybe even in Clemson’s favor because of the Deacons poor start to the season. This home game like environment will fuel the Tigers to throttle the Deacon Defense that has struggled against far worse offensive competition. While the Defense has a more difficult challenge, I do not see them getting outplayed for an entire game. Clemson will win 45-16, increasing their undefeated record within ACC play. Currently the spread is -20 in Clemson’s favor, and my score prediction tells us to take Clemson to cover that number. My overall record this season is 5-0, and my record ATS is 4-1 as I took Clemson to cover at -14 last week against the Noles.
Sources:
“Sports Reference | Sports Stats, Fast, Easy, and Up-To-Date | Sports-Reference.com.” Sports-Reference.com, 2019, www.sports-reference.com/.
“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services.” Ourlads.com, 2024, www.ourlads.com/.
“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats.” Www.teamrankings.com, www.teamrankings.com/.
ESPN. “ESPN.” ESPN.com, 2019, www.espn.com/. (for picture as well)