Painter’s Preview: Clemson vs. Virginia

Clemson hopes to continue their ACC dominance against the 4-2 (2-1)Virginia Cavaliers before their second bye week that will propel the Tigers into November Football. Clemson enters this week steady at No. 10 with a 5-1 (4-0) record. Virginia Head Coach Tony Elliot faces the Tigers for the first time since his departure after the 2020 season, and it will be interesting to see how his “overachieving” Cavaliers handle this revamped Clemson team. The Tigers hope to reverse the trends of the past few years because since 2021, the Tigers have only won their games before their second bye week by a combined 17 points (ESPN). HC Tony Elliot will have his guys ready to play all week looking for that career defining upset against his former mentor.

Clemson Preview:

As the whole country has witnessed for the past five weeks, the Tiger Offense has been operating on an elite level. Even after scoring just 3 points in Week 1, Clemson is ranked 10th in points per game in the country averaging 41.0 (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Quarterback Cade Klubnik and Company faced some struggles early against Wake Forest, but a second quarter surge injected momentum into the Tiger sideline that led to a 49-14 beatdown. Klubnik and his Offense have yet another opportunity to throw the ball around the field against a struggling Virginia pass defense. While Klubnik has been stellar this season, his Receiving Corps is dealing with some injury struggles. True Freshman WR Bryant Wesco Jr. was not able to travel last weekend due to an ankle injury, and he is not expected back until after Clemson’s bye week. Along side Wesco in the medical tent is Sophomore WR Tyler Brown, who was Clemson’s leading Receiver last season. Brown has been fighting his injury all season, and now the question for him is to redshirt or not. The Wide Receiver injury bug visibly threw Klubnik off his game last season, so it will be interesting to see how he responds during back-back weeks without those dynamic guys. Klubnik will continue to have the help of his top target RS/So Antonio Williams, who snagged another touchdown this past Saturday. TE Jake Brinningstool led the Tigers in receiving yards with 104 which is the first time he has had 100 yards since Appalachian State (ESPN). Clemson also dipped into their depth within the Receiving Corps last weekend giving RS/Freshmen Misun Kelly and Noble Johnson playing time on the road. Kelly caught his first passes as a Tiger, and his dynamic skill set from the slot could be valuable for Clemson in the future once his opportunity comes. Running Back Phil Mafah continues to look impressive in the back field as he accumulated 100 yards for the fourth time this season (ESPN). His physical running style is much different from what Clemson had with former Running Back Will Shipley, and Mafah’s ability to break tackles and run people over create opportunities for more yards and momentum swings. His 7 yards per carry average is 16th in the country, and yet he is still overshadowed by Klubnik’s improvement (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Clemson’s future at Running Back still remains a question for the team as no one in their collection of young guys has been super impressive with their opportunities. After another shaky start, the Offensive Line began to make their presence felt late during the second quarter. They allowed just one sack, but the pressure that Klubnik felt early prevented some completions. The Tiger OL looks to be the most concerning factor on the Offense, but their improved play as the game wears on is encouraging. Virginia has a physical front that almost has the same amount of sacks as the Tigers have, so it will be a tough task for OL Coach Matt Luke to prepare for. However, if they can give Klubnik time and Mafah just a little bit of space, the Tigers will continue to roll on Saturday.

The Tiger Defense had a strong showing during the second half against Wake, but the first half has raised some question marks about the belief in this unit. Clemson allowed just 38 total yards during the second half compared to the 195 total yards that were given up during the first (ESPN). The Tigers have met the standard against the passing attack with their ability to stay in phase with Receivers combined with their pass rush. Star Cornerback Avieon Terrell sets the standard for the Tigers in the Secondary, and the others have followed. While the Secondary does not win every 50-50 ball, their ability to be in phase with the Wide Receiver all the way gives hope to Tiger Fans. Within the pass rush, the Tigers got home to the Quarterback on three different occasions; however, no Defensive Lineman recorded a sack. Clemson’s Defensive Line so far this season has been underwhelming, and their need for blitzes is concerning that they do not create the pressure we have seen in the past. The return of Peter Woods visibly helped the DL on Saturday, and they hope to continue to improve throughout the season. Within the run game, Clemson’s Defense has continued to struggle. While the Tigers finished the game against Wake giving up only 87 rushing yards, most of those yards came during the first half. Clemson was able to limit Wake’s Offensive attack with 2 lucky interceptions that masked how poorly they were playing at the time, but the Defense has a lot to improve on. Their ability to limit dynamic Quarterbacks will be put to the test once again as the Cavaliers’ Anthony Colandrea gets it done through the air and on the ground. The Tiger Secondary also has a difficult task in stopping top target Malachi Fields, who is expected to enter the NFL Draft. While the Virginia passing attack has been good, their running game has not been stellar so far this season. Clemson’s Defense has a lot to prove on Saturday against an underrated Virginia team that has competed within every contest they have played.

UVA Preview:

The Virginia Offense is led by second year starting Sophomore Anthony Colandrea. Colandrea experienced tons of heartbreak during a struggling first year starting last season, but he has looked much improved with a year under his belt. His added experience has already allowed the Cavaliers to surpass their expected win total through just 5 games, and they do not want to stop there. Colandrea poses a tough challenge for the Tiger Defense, as he is able to get it done through the air and on the ground. So far this season, he has thrown for 1,490 passing yards, 9 TDs, and 4 INT, while rushing for 242 on 64 carries (ESPN). Colandrea has not turned the ball over since Week 3, and his 363 total yard effort came up just short of upsetting a very talented Louisville team (ESPN). Expect Colandrea and the Cavaliers to rely heavily on his legs in an attempt to spoil Saturday for Clemson Fans. Along side Colandrea in the backfield is a two Running Back system between RS/So Xavier Brown and Former Clemson player Senior Kobe Pace. Pace has the lead role in the Offense rushing the ball 25 more times than Brown, yet Brown has accumulated more yards. The combination of Pace’s bruising running style with Brown’s faster pace creates a difficult combination to stop for opposing teams. However, the Cavaliers have not accumulated 150 rushing yards this season against a power conference opponent, and that trend will most likely continue against Clemson’s dominant front. Virginia’s Receiving threats have been bolstered by key transfers, yet their main guys have headlined the stat sheet. RS/Jr Malachi Fields is a 6’4 220 pound WR that has been a top target for the Cavaliers for two years now. Fields returned after an 800 yard Sophomore season, and he currently has 541 yards on 37 catches this season doubling anyone else on the roster (ESPN). Fields is a must-target player for Virginia and expect him to be playing on Sundays this time next season. Behind Fields are two key transfers that have improved Virginia’s next top targets: Graduates TE Tyler Neville and WR Trell Harris. Both guys have over 200 yards on more than 13+ receptions and are key contributors (ESPN). Dynamic Transfer WR Chris Tyree has been riddled with the injury bug for the past couple of weeks, but he is likely to return against the Tigers. Tyree is a familiar face for Clemson as he has played the Tigers 4 times at his previous school, Notre Dame. The Cavaliers will need a healthy dynamic weapon like Tyree in the passing attack and return game to rival Clemson’s athletes. The Cavaliers’ big guys upfront are headlined by Graduate Center Brian Stevens along side 3 other upperclassmen (“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services”). Their Offensive Front has been mediocre so far this season, ranking in the middle tier of school for sacks given up per game, rushing yards per carry, and passing yards per game (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Virginia’s OL will have yet another tough challenge, but they are hoping to avenge their past 3 performance in which they have given up a total of 7 sacks (ESPN).

Virginia’s Defense is much improved since last season, where they gave up an average of 33.8 points per game. Through six games this year they have reduced that number to 19.7 points per game, but their challenge on Saturday is against the best offense they have seen so far (ESPN). The Cavaliers start just 2 underclassmen, and they are bolstered by 6 fifth-year players (“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services”). They returned 4/8 of their top tacklers from last season, while also attaining 5 transfers to start and help with depth (“Sports Reference | Sports Stats, Fast, Easy, and Up-To-Date | Sports-Reference.com”). Their 2023 top tackler Safety Jonas Sanker returned for his Senior season, and so far this season he has yet again lit up the tackle sheet, leading the Cavaliers. Along side Sanker on Defense is who I believe is their most impressive player: Linebacker Kam Robinson. Robinson is just a Sophomore that saw a lot of time during his Freshman campaign, and he has looked more impressive this season. Robinson’s tackle production is fourth on the team; however, he leads the roster in sacks so far with 3 (ESPN). Kam Robinson’s ability is comparable to Clemson’s Barrett Carter, and he poses a difficult challenge for the Tiger Offense. With help from Robinson and their Veteran Defensive Line, the Cavaliers have limited opponents to just 3.7 yards per carry which ranks 37th in the nation. However, their pass defense has not seen an improvement from last season. Virginia ranks 120th giving up an average of 290 passing yards a game, and Cade Klubnik will be looking to continue his climb up the Heisman rankings (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). The Cavaliers’ top three Cornerbacks are all new faces to Virginia as each was obtained via the Transfer Portal. Junior Jam Jackson is the new headline player within that position group, and he has performed well for Virginia after transferring from Robert Morris (ESPN). Jackson will still need to step up his game while also getting help to stop this Clemson passing attack that is one of the best in the country.

Keys to a Tiger Victory:

Sacks on Sacks: The Virginia Offensive Line has given up 7 sacks in their past 3 games, and the Louisville Defense used those sacks to limit the opportunities given to the Cavalier Offense (ESPN). Louisville was able to beat the Cavaliers 24-20 in a tough fought game, and their ability to disrupt and get Colandrea off schedule enabled that defensive victory. The Tigers have 13 sacks so far this season, and in order to ensure a win on Saturday they will need at least 3 sacks on Colandrea. Ideally the Tigers are able to gain that pressure through their Defensive Line pass rush with a fully healthy Peter Woods, but expect the Linebackers to be involved heavily to achieve this feat.

Cade Heisman Tour: The Klubnik Heisman Tour makes yet another stop against a struggling Virginia Secondary on Saturday. Cade has been so extremely vital in Clemson’s success that he has propelled himself into the Heisman conversation. Klubnik has thrown for 1,528 yards, 17 TDs, and 2 INTs while rushing for 198 yards and 4 TDs on just 35 carries (ESPN). While Klubnik will be most likely missing one of his top targets in Bryant Wesco Jr., he looked unphased by that against the Demon Deacons after one quarter of adjustment. He needs to be clean again regarding turnovers to ensure just a victory for the Tigers, but so far this season he has went far beyond just being clean. With Virginia’s Defense allowing 290 passing yards a game, Klubnik is primed for his third 300 yard game this season as he is on route to New York.

Get off the Field: The Defense has a lot of pressure on them Saturday facing Virginia’s Offense. Virginia’s Offense ranks 3rd in the country in third downs per game at 16.4, and the Tigers will need to get to these third downs while also getting off the field during them (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). During both of the Cavaliers losses, they were forced to at least 15 third downs. Their 27-13 loss against Maryland saw the Cavaliers reach 15 third downs and only convert 3 of them. Their other 24-20 loss against Louisville saw Virginia reach 19 third downs and only convert 8 of them (ESPN). The recipe to limiting to the Virginia Offense to 20 points or less is obvious. If the Tigers can get off the field on third down 60% of the time on Saturday, they will be in route to another dominant win. However, if the Cavaliers are able to stay in control of the football, the game could get very concerning for the Tigers.

Tiger Watch: Peter Woods

Clemson was able to get Peter Woods back on the field fully this past weekend, and his impact was easy to see. Woods did not light up the stat sheet as he was not able to finish a couple of plays that could have been sacks, but the pressure he put onto the opposing Quarterback was evident. His strength and power as a Defensive Lineman is incredible, especially coming from the Defensive End position he is playing now. With him at Defensive End, it’s like Clemson is playing three Defensive Tackles, except one can move. Woods will have an opportunity on Saturday to have his break out game of the season, and his pressure applied to Colandrea will help enable Clemson to win yet again. His break out game is coming, it is just a matter of when.

Painter’s Prediction:

Clemson has struggled the past few seasons during the week before their second bye, and Saturday will be a test to see if this team is truly different from those others that have left Tiger Fans unsatisfied. Their struggle combined with Virginia’s sneaky good play with a Coach that knows Clemson well scares me, but I think this Tiger team has that “It” factor to set them apart from these close calls. The Clemson Offense seems certain to score, so it will come down to how many times the Defense can get Virginia off the field on third down. Because of Clemson’s ability to create explosive plays compared to Virginia’s slower style, Clemson will win 41-20. The current spread is -21.5 in Clemson’s favor, and my score prediction says to take Virginia to barely cover. I am currently undefeated in my predictions and 5-1 ATS.

Sources:

“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services.” Ourlads.com, 2024, www.ourlads.com/.

“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats.” Www.teamrankings.com, www.teamrankings.com/.

“Sports Reference | Sports Stats, Fast, Easy, and Up-To-Date | Sports-Reference.com.” Sports-Reference.com, 2019, www.sports-reference.com/.

ESPN. “ESPN.” ESPN.com, 2019, www.espn.com/. (picture too)