Painter’s Preview: Clemson vs. Louisville
Clemson returns back to the Valley after their second bye week to face the 5-3 (3-2) Louisville Cardinals. As Coach Swinney always says, real football starts in November. If the Tigers want to continue their dominance, they have to be successful during their tough November schedule. Clemson’s turnaround started during the first of November last season after a home win over number 12 ranked Notre Dame. Can the Tigers continue their electric playing style into November?
Clemson Preview:
The Tiger Offense is hoping to continue their dominance after their second bye week of the season. Led by Heisman Hopeful Cade Klubnik, the Offense has averaged 42 pts/g even while scoring just 3 points in their opener against the Georgia Bulldogs (ESPN). Since the opener, Clemson hasn’t looked back, rattling off six straight easy victories with five coming against ACC opponents. Klubnik has truly made the Offense what it is with his improvement to see the field and to create off of schedule. He has averaged 262 passing yds/g while throwing 20 TDs with just 3 INTs. His attack is not just limited to the air as Klubnik has ran for 227 yards and 4 TDs (ESPN). Because of Klubnik’s trust in his Offensive Line, he has been able to fully be productive in both areas of the game, but he wants to stay in the pocket and throw the rock. Klubnik has spread the wealth to his receivers, but the top targets have been RS/So WR Antonio Williams and Senior TE Jake Briningstool. Both guys have at least 28 catches and 300 yards, and they combine for 9 of Klubnik’s touchdown passes (ESPN). Behind those guys are two True Freshman WRs, Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore, that have helped open up the Tiger passing attack. Bryant Wesco Jr. made the most immediate impact because of his dynamic speed and ability to stretch the field, but injuries have held Wesco out of the Tigers past two contests. However, it is expected for Wesco to return this weekend for some November football. Moore’s impact has become more obvious in the absence of Wesco as he has helped the receiving corps not miss a beat. In the past couple of games, Moore has been a early target for Klubnik and do not expect that to change with the return of Wesco. It will be interesting to see how the Tigers treat the starters on Saturday as Moore slides in for Wesco on the outside, but Tiger Nation would love to see a combination of Williams, Moore, and Wesco on the field together. Behind these three, the Tigers still have plenty of options that are worth mentioning: RS/Jr Troy Stellato, RS/So Cole Turner, and Junior Adam Randall. Running Back Phil Mafah and his physical running style has continued to produce for the Tigers in every game for Clemson. Mafah has averaged 97 rushing yds/g for Clemson while getting into the endzone 6 total times (ESPN). While his game against Virginia was his worst since UGA, Mafah will still get involved early and often for Clemson as he looks to choose violence every time he gets the ball. The Tigers’ back-up RBs have yet to take that step up to prove they deserve carries along side Mafah, and that concern is one of the Tigers few flaws Offensively. The Tiger Offensive Line continues to look much improved from the past few seasons with the help of new OL Coach Matt Luke. They have allowed for Clemson to averaged 5.9 yds/carry no matter who the rusher is, and they have only given up 5 sacks on Klubnik through 7 games (ESPN). This unit has done the dirty work all season to allow for the Tiger Offense improvement.
While the casual fan expects the Tiger Defense to be bad because of the scores of some of their games, the Starting Clemson Defense has been pretty great all season long. Taking out the 42 total garbage time points from just Virginia and N.C. State, the Tiger Starters have allowed just 17 pts/g (ESPN). The Tiger pass rush has been a little bit of a struggle for them this season, but they are coming off one of their best performances to date. They need to continue this feat to pressure and disrupt QB Tyler Shough, who has placed his team in multiple positions to be undefeated. The Tiger’s bye week should be extremely helpful to the Defense, giving them the break every team needs to get healthy. Star DE’s Peter Woods and T.J. Parker are the most impactful Defensive Lineman for the Tigers, and they need to get after Shough on Saturday. Parker hopes to increase his team-leading 5 sacks, and Woods’ consistent disruption will eventually led to sacks for the big fella. Behind these two stars are Linebackers Barrett Carter and Wade Woodaz who show their versatility every week. Both fill up the stat sheet in every stat for Clemson, leading the Tigers in tackles while combining for 5 total sacks (ESPN). While Clemson mostly plays just 2 Linebackers, they will release 5-star True Freshman Sammy Brown on some occasions. His sense for the game is obvious to see, and he has already accumulated 3 sacks in his limited action (ESPN). The true effect of the Tiger Front Seven will be in their efforts to stop the rushing attack. After struggling early into the season, the return of Peter Woods has bolstered the Tigers’ efficiency in stopping the rush, but they face the best Running Back they’ve seen all season this weekend. The Clemson Starting Secondary has been impressive throughout the season, and their challenge does not get easier on Saturday with Shough and Brooks. Led by star Sophomore Cornerback Avieon Terrell, the Secondary has limited starting Quarterbacks to 183 passing yds/g throughout the season. They face one of their toughest Quarterbacks yet in Tyler Shough, who averages 294 passing yds/g (ESPN). However, Shough has been prone to turn the ball over in tough contests, and the Tigers have 9 total INTs on the year. Clemson’s Starting Secondary has stepped up to every challenge they have faced since Week 1 and do not expect that to change on Saturday. Terrell and Safeties R.J. Mickens and Khalil Barnes will continue to led by example once they return to the Valley.
Louisville Preview:
Louisville enters November at 5-3, a record that they did not expect to have. Three one-possession losses have placed the Cardinals where they stand, but their record does not exemplify how good their team is. Offensively the Cardinals’ trust in the portal has littered their Offense with 13 Transfers that fill out their starting positions along side their depth (“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services”). Led by Gr/Transfer Quarterback Tyler Shough, who is benefitting from the Cardinals’ use of the portal, is having his best season in his career. Shough has thrown for 2,348 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 64% completion percentage (ESPN). The former Oregon Duck and Texas Tech Red Raider has found his home in Kentucky as he hopes to propel himself into the NFL draft. However, Shough has yet to led the Cardinals to the big time season defining win, but another opportunity is in front of him on Saturday. The task has become even taller for Shough as he is missing his top TE target, RS/Fr Jamari Johnson, and one of his most dynamic WR’s, Gr/Transfer Caullin Lacy. This will be the second week Shough has missed both targets as they both suffered season-ending injuries. However, Tyler Shough will still have the help of Wide Receiver Ja’Corey Brooks who is top ten in receiving yards in the country with 799. Brooks has also added 8 touchdowns while creating some of the best catches in the country this season (ESPN). Dissatisfied after a less than stellar season at Alabama, Brooks transferred to the Cardinals and has moved his name up into the NFL Draft. Shough and Brooks have a tough match-up against the starting Tiger Secondary who have shut down every top QB-WR duo they have met to this point. If the Cardinals are going to be successful on Saturday, they will need Brooks to have another 100+ yard and 1+ touchdown games that he has done multiple times this season. Along side Shough in the backfield is True Freshman Running Back Isaac Brown. Brown’s burst of speed has given life to the Cardinal backfield, and he has taken the bulk of the carries for them. Brown has 649 rushing yards on just 86 carries averaging 7.5 yards a carry (ESPN). His yds/carry ranks fifth in the country, and the Tigers have their toughest challenge in the running game since UGA in week 1 (“NCAA College Football FBS Current Individual Stats | NCAA.com”). Behind Brown the Cardinals go to 3 other options that spilt carries equally. However, none of those options have the burst and production that Isaac Brown has proven to have. The Louisville Offensive Line consists of all 4+ year players, and it shows in their production. Through 8 games, Shough has only been sacked 12 times. However, in each of their losses, the veteran front has been dominated giving up 3 sacks to Notre Dame, SMU, and Miami (ESPN). They are looking to flip this script Saturday against a Tiger Defensive Line that always seems to be dominant.
Louisville’s trust in the Portal is visible on Defense as well, as they have 11 Transfers that fill out their starting lineup and their depth (“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services”). Their Defense has been the weaker part of their team, giving up an average of 30.5 pts/g against power 4 opponents. In each of their 3 losses, the Cardinals Defense has given up 31+ points while only creating 3 turnovers in each of those games (ESPN). Returning just 4 out of 10 of their top tacklers from last season, the Cards’ trust in the portal has not lived up to the hype yet (“Sports Reference | Sports Stats, Fast, Easy, and Up-To-Date | Sports-Reference.com”). Louisville has been struggling in both rush and pass defense ranking 68th and 90th respectively in both categories (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Led by Linebackers RS/Jr T.J. Quinn and Sophomore Stanquan Clark, the Cards’ have a lot to prove against the Tigers. Louisville has a lot on their hands Saturday, and it is tough to decide how they want to approach this fiery Clemson Offense, but they will need to force turnovers to have a chance. Louisville has forced just 7 turnovers on the year with only 2 of those being interceptions (ESPN). The Louisville Secondary that is giving up 248.2 passing yards a game faces one of the best QB’s they have seen all season in Cade Klubnik. The Cardinals are hoping shades of 2023 Klubnik shine through on Saturday to increase their chances of winning. While their Secondary has been lacking, the Defensive Line has been pretty disruptive through the season. Led by a trio of Tramel Logan, Jared Dawson, and Ashton Gillotte the Cards have produced 17 sacks in 8 games. Yet in their big games, the three losses, Louisville only produced 4 total sacks (ESPN). They have one of their toughest challenges on Saturday along with the Secondary as the Tiger Offensive Line has only given up 5 total sacks on Quarterback Cade Klubnik. This trio of guys has to get to Klubnik to throw the explosive Tiger Offense off schedule to be successful this weekend.
Keys to a Tiger Victory:
Stay on the Gas: The Cardinals are coached by the very spirited Jeff Brohm, and they have not given up in any of their games this season. This past weekend they trailed 20-0 on the road to Boston College, and at one point they had a 7.3% chance to win (ESPN). Yet the Cardinals kept on fighting and eventually they took the lead with around 7 minutes remaining and did not look back. Against Miami, their defense may have given up 52, but the Offense just kept on scoring and scoring giving them an opportunity to get an onside kick to try and win the game. Down by ten to Notre Dame at half, the Cardinals did not stop fighting and let the Irish blow them out. Instead they held on tight scoring 10 in the fourth quarter to give them a chance to win (ESPN). Louisville exemplifies the spirit of Coach Brohm, and if Clemson gets a lead early, they have to continue stepping on the gas to ensure that the Cardinals have no chance. Clemson is known for letting everyone play, but this is not a game where that needs to happen. Dabo needs to stay on the gas against Brohm and the Cards on Saturday.
Turnover Margin: Louisville has struggled creating turnovers all season long, creating just 7 total turnovers with just 2 INTs (ESPN). Clemson struggled throughout all of last season with giveaways especially fumbling the football. The Cardinals have lived on fumbles this season for turnovers, and if the Tigers continue to protect the rock like they have been, it will be extremely difficult for Louisville to win. The Cards rank 59th in the country in giveaways per game at 1.3 compared to the Tigers 8th ranking (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). The Tigers have been able to win the turnover margin in 5 of their 7 games, and as long as they do not lose it on Saturday, it is hard to see them losing at home. Klubnik has to continue his improvement with protecting the ball, and the Tiger Defense needs to disrupt Shough enough to create turnovers.
Slow Down the Passing Attack: As mentioned above, QB Tyler Shough averages almost 300 passing yds/g, and WR Ja’Corey Brooks almost averages 100 receiving yds/g (ESPN). This duo is the best Clemson has seen all season, and the Tiger Secondary has a tough task. In Louisville’s 3 losses, Shough averages 42 passing attempts per game, and it is obvious that Coach Brohm is going to depend on his Quarterback to win the game for them on Saturday. Even though Louisville came out on the wrong side in each of those games, they were right there with their opponents in every step of the contest because of Shough’s and Brooks’ ability to create massive plays. Clemson has to slow down these explosive passing plays to kill the life on the Offensive side of the ball for Louisville.
Tiger Watch: Avieon Terrell
It is pretty obvious that Avieon Terrell was going to be the Tiger to watch on Saturday after all the talk of Tyler Shough and Ja’Corey Brooks. Terrell is the first Tiger to be on Tiger Watch a second time this season, with his first coming against Stanford and their star WR Elic Ayomanor. Terrell with help from the Secondary limited Ayomanor to just 50 yards, and Terrell left that week with another INT. Clemson will not match Terrell up with Brooks on every down of the game because it is not how their Defense operates; however, Terrell will get his opportunity to lock down the star Receiver. Brooks has become a highlight reel for Louisville catching passes after 360’s and much more. Terrell and the Secondary will need to limit these last ditch efforts from Shough to ensure that the Cards do not gain the momentum within the game. Terrell loves to have big roles and challenges, and we will see if he lives up to yet another one on Saturday.
Painter’s Prediction:
Louisville is Clemson’s toughest opponent since the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1, and Clemson has not received recognition nationally because of this. Louisville is the start of a difficult end of the season schedule for the Tigers, and we will see who they truly are during the course of November. With that being said, Cade Klubnik’s improvement and the norm for the Tiger Defense will not slow down this weekend. Clemson returns from a bye with a night game in the Valley. Tiger fandom will be rocking all night, and Clemson will win 41-24. The current spread for this game is -11 in Clemson’s favor, and my current prediction tells us to take Clemson to cover. I am currently 7-0 with my predictions outright and 6-1 ATS.
Sources:
“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services.” Ourlads.com, 2024, www.ourlads.com/.
“NCAA College Football FBS Current Individual Stats | NCAA.com.” Www.ncaa.com, www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/907.
“Sports Reference | Sports Stats, Fast, Easy, and Up-To-Date | Sports-Reference.com.” Sports-Reference.com, 2019, www.sports-reference.com/.
ESPN. “ESPN.” ESPN.com, 2019, www.espn.com/. (for Pic also)