Painter’s Preview: Clemson vs. Citadel
Clemson returns home to Death Valley for their military appreciation game against the Citadel. The Tigers are currently 8-2 (7-1), and their Playoff hopes have not completely left them yet. This is the first time Clemson has welcomed the Citadel Bulldogs since 2020. Since then, Clemson Football has looked very different from the departure of Trevor Lawrence. Can Clemson get back healthy and propel themselves into a great four years in between the next matchup between the Tigers and the Citadel.
Clemson Preview:
Offensively, Clemson comes into this match-up after playing good for just one half for the second straight week. After scoring 17 points early against Pittsburgh, their Offensive production fell off a cliff as they accumulated less than 50 yards in the entire second half until their eventual game winning drive. Despite the troubles, Quarterback Cade Klubnik had another good day at the office throwing for over 280 yards and 2 TDs while also running for a 50 yards touchdown (ESPN). Klubnik’s progression is easily seen throughout this whole season, but the Offense around him has seen to have gotten worse. Clemson’s entire Offense accumulated for 346 total yards and 329 of those yards came from Cade Klubnik (ESPN). His footwork, reads, and overall play is one of the best in the country as of now, and he is the main reason that Clemson is still in the Playoff Hunt. For the second straight game, the Receiving Core for Clemson had another 4 drops. These drops came at the hands of WR Antonio Williams (x2), TE Jake Briningstool, and WR T.J. Moore. All three of these guys also had a dropped pass against Virginia Tech as well, and Clemson needs to solve this problem fast or the Offense will continue to stall out. Antonio Williams may have had 2 drops, but overall he caught 13 passes for 149 yards and 2 TDs in a career day (ESPN). His stellar performance should not be overlooked, but there also should not be as many mistakes from him that we have seen in the past weeks. Williams is a true top target for Clemson, and with a couple more stellar performances, Williams may get over the 800-yard marker for the first time in his career. It is also obvious that the Tigers other top two Receivers are the Freshmen Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore. Both Wesco and Moore dominant the snap count when healthy, and their playmaking potential is through the roof. Both guys had about 400 receiving yards and are the future of this Clemson team (ESPN). Running Back Phil Mafah had his worst game of his career against the Panthers running for just 17 yards on 17 attempts (ESPN). Pittsburgh has one of the best rush defenses in the country, and Clemson had multiple Offensive Linemen out that contributed to that stat line. Mafah is just 2 yards shy of 1000 rushing yards this season, and he will mostly get to that number against the Citadel. Mafah has been the only featured back for the Tigers this season, and I hope that they showcase the potential in that position group because of the departure of Mafah at the end of this season. Expect all of the guys behind Mafah to get snaps unless injuries say otherwise which is a collection of RS/Fr Jay Haynes, RS/So Keith Adams Jr., RS/Fr Jarvis Green, and Freshman David Eziomume. The Tigers Offensive Line, as mentioned above, is struggling heavily because of the injuries across that unit. Clemson was missing 3 starters against Pittsburgh which led to a season-high 5 sacks given up, and Cade Klubnik was hit more than 14 times (ESPN). The Offensive Line is the key to success for Clemson, and they must get healthy before the Tigers host the dangerous pass rush from South Carolina. Expect Clemson to rest some guys this week against the Citadel, and hopefully they can get back to full health and better performances.
After one of the worst Defensive performance Clemson has seen in a long time against Louisville, the Tiger Defensive has kept us within these past couple of games because of the struggles from the Offense. Defensive Coordinator Wes Goodwin was facing a lot of heat after Louisville, but I have full faith in him after the performances this Defense has had these past two weeks despite the injuries. After playing three Linebackers against the Hokies, an injury to Wade Woodaz and a targeting call on Sammy Brown during the game kept both of these superstars on the sideline. While the Secondary did not put up their best performance, the Tigers limited Pittsburgh to just 88 rushing yards on 33 carries (ESPN). Star DE T.J. Parker finally had his breakout performance putting up a record tying 4 sacks and 5 TFLs against the Panthers (ESPN). Along side Parker, Clemson got to the Quarterback 4 other times totaling 8 sacks. The Tiger Front has struggled all season in their created pressure, but they finally took advantage of a hurt Pittsburgh Offensive Line to get to the Quarterback. It will be interesting to see how this Defensive Line continues to play riding high off this performance. The Tigers will need them against South Carolina in a few weeks to slow down LaNorris Sellars and Raheim “Rocket” Sanders. Clemson Fans got to see some Linebacker depth because of the absences of Woodaz and Brown, and RS/Fr Linebacker Dee Crayton settled in for the second half and showed he could compete. Senior Linebacker Barrett Carter was all over the field, and his instincts helped Crayton settle into his role. It will be interesting to see how Woodaz is treated for this upcoming game, but either way, we should see some more play from the depth of this Linebacker Core on Saturday. Look for Crayton and Sophomore Jamaal Anderson to be the most seen Linebackers on the field, but I would like to see Freshman C.J. Kubah-Taylor and his potential. In the Secondary, Clemson added another injury with Veteran Safety R.J. Mickens. The Secondary had their worst game of the season giving up 350 passing yards to Pittsburgh back-up Quarterback, and they seemed to struggle within zone coverages. Star Cornerback Avieon Terrell had his worst game by far, but Freshman Ashton Hampton come in relief for Junior Jeadyn Lukus and played well. Clemson has been flirting with this switch all season, but Hampton seems to have taken over that role for now. Lukus will still be important for depth moving forward because of his experience and of injuries. With Mickens most likely out this week against the Citadel, expect Veteran Tyler Venables and RS/So Kylon Griffin to take over the Safety positions. However, expect many of the Tigers Freshman to get reps in this positions like Ricardo Jones and Noah Dixon. It will be interesting to see how the Tigers treat their young guys in this game, and how they manage the injuries that have accumulated on the team.
Citadel Preview:
The Citadel comes into this contest 5-6 with hopes to upset the Tiger in Death Valley just as they upset South Carolina in Williams Brice in 2015. The Bulldogs have already overachieved their expectations for this season after going 0-11 during their 23-24 campaign. Traditionally, the Bulldogs and their military presence has enabled their Offense to be run through the Wing-T or Triple Option; however, their have been a lot of shotgun formations for the Citadel this season. Led by sixth-year Transfer Quarterback Johnathan Bennett, their Offense has averaged 22.2 pts/g which is an improvement from last season. Bennett, a former Liberty Flame, has thrown for 1,636 passing yards, 8 TDs, 7 INTs, and a 53% completion percentage. While Bennett’s stats do not jump off the page, his running ability opens up this Offense as he has rushed for over 500 yards and 4 TDs (ESPN). Alongside Bennett in the backfield is a 3 Running Back rotation with Senior Cooper Wallace, Sophomore Corey Ibrahim, and Senior Garrison Johnson. Wallace and Ibrahim are the two most featured backs, but Johnson has had more of a knack for the endzone than the other two. Both Wallace and Ibrahim have 85+ carries and 380+ yards this season and have combined for just 5 touchdowns. Garrison Johnson has only 52 carries and 217 yards this season, but has reached the endzone on 6 different occasions (ESPN). Johnson bigger frame allows for the Bulldogs to use his size on the goal line, and expect him to get some carries against the Tigers if they make it close to scoring. Catching the ball from Quarterback Johnathan Bennett has been three top Receivers this season: 6’4 Senior Dervon Pesnell, Junior Javonte Graves-Billips, and Senior Tyler Cherry. Pesnell leads the Bulldogs in receiving yards with 443 and has been a pleasant surprise after not surpassing 100 yards in a season once in his career so far (ESPN). Pesnell’s 6’4 frame has been a weapon for the Citadel, and expect for him to get some chances at some jump balls against the Tigers. Graves-Billips gives the Bulldogs a different look than Pesnell, and his shorter size and frame allows for shorter and quicker routes. He leads the team in receptions and has been a safety valve for Bennett all season. Tyler Cherry has been a consistent producer his entire Bulldog career, and he is having his best season in his last year. Cherry has caught just 16 passes, but has taken them for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns (ESPN). The Citadel Offensive Line has been pretty good throughout this season giving up just 18 sacks in 11 games, but they face a red hot Tiger Defensive Line coming off an 8 sack game. It will be interesting to see how the Bulldogs use Bennett’s playmaking ability to catch the Tigers off-guard.
On the Defensive side of the football, the Bulldogs have allowed 21.1 points per game which is also an improvement from last season. They are led by Junior Linebacker Thomas Wyatt who has increased his production for the Citadel each and every year of his career. Wyatt currently leads the Bulldogs in tackles and is tied for second in sacks (ESPN). He has showcased an ability to fly all across the field and that ability will be testes against a Clemson Offense that has fed on weaker opponents. Within the Front 7 with Wyatt, the production for the Bulldogs is spread between a multitude of players. No Bulldog has over 4 sacks, yet their sack production totals 26 which is the same number as Clemson this season (ESPN). The most notable Defensive Linemen for the Citadel are Sophomore Edge Rushers Maurice Bonneau Jr. and Chris Benton. Bonneau leads the Bulldogs with 3.5 sacks, and Benton is right behind him with 2 (ESPN). Both Bonneau and Benton have smaller frames, but their quickness could be what sets them apart from the Tigers’ Offensive Line. It is going to be difficult for the Bulldogs to out strength the Tigers, so I believe Benton and Benneau could be their key to slow down Clemson’s Offense especially with the concerns Clemson has within their OL depth. The Secondary for the Bulldogs ranks 42nd within the FCS in passing yards given up a game at 198.5 (“NCAA College Football FCS Current Team Stats | NCAA.com”). Their most notable player within their Secondary is Senior Defensive Back Dominick Poole. The fourth-year Bulldog leads them in interceptions with 3, and he has accumulated 10 over his career (ESPN). Poole and his Secondary have to play the best Quarterback and Pass Catchers they have seen all season on Saturday, and they will need to force Cade Klubnik into mistakes to give themselves a chance to take this one home.
Keys to a Tiger Victory:
Show Up: Clemson has not shown up truly prepared for a game since Wake Forest. The Tigers need to show up prepared against the Citadel without looking ahead to South Carolina to ensure they put out the Bulldogs’ hopes early. Do not anticipate the Tigers starters to play very long especially with the injuries lingering on this team, but the back-ups have to be just as ready as the starters. Every time this season we have seen the back-ups, there has been an obvious drop off from production. That cannot happen against the Citadel. Clemson needs this game to get fully healthy for South Carolina and that means everyone needs to show up prepared to play and dominant.
No Turnovers: There is no possibly way for the Citadel to beat the Tigers if Clemson plays a clean game of football. Clemson and Cade Klubnik have improved so much in one year with turnovers that it is unreal. However, that must continue throughout the rest of the season if Clemson wants a chance to end this year on a good note. Last season against Charleston Southern, Clemson turned the ball over twice within the first quarter which led to a tie game after the first quarter. Clemson went on to win that game 66-17, but they had to play their starter longer than necessary. Clemson can turn it over 2-3 times and still win this football game, but it will not be a good sign going into the South Carolina game. The Tigers need to continue playing clean football to continue the good omens going into South Carolina hate week.
Young Guys: As mentioned multiple times and as expected, the young guys are going to get a lot of opportunities to play this weekend. This season there has been a massive drop-off in production from the back-ups and that does not need to happen against the Bulldogs. The young guys are crucial in the process of getting the starters healthy this week. Expect to see more from this group than seen all season because we will also see some guys redshirting that have not had as many opportunities to play this year as others. This type of game is perfect is seeing the upcoming potential that Clemson has on their roster especially with our absence in taking Portal players. I want to see the 24’ class shine and show their potential during this game. My players to watch from the young guys are RS/Fr QB Christopher Vizzina, every back-up Running Back, RS/Fr WR Misun Kelly, Freshman TE Christian Bentancur, Freshmen Linebackers Drew Woodaz and C.J. Kubah-Taylor, and Freshmen Defensive Backs Noah Dixon and Corian Gibson.
Tiger Watch: Back-Up Running Backs
As hinted on right above, I want to see some production from Clemson’s back-up Running Backs. Phil Mafah has taken up almost all of the snap share this season because of his talent, but his departure after this season leaves a question mark within Clemson’s backfield. RS/Fr Jay Haynes has been the designated back-up RB for the Tigers, but his production has been very limited getting just 31 carries for 151 yards (ESPN). Haynes has been talked up to have a burst of speed, but even in the return game we have not seen any sort of that conclusion. Behind Haynes is the second oldest player in that room, RS/So Keith Adams Jr. Adams is a power back that has shown to use his frame to run over opposing players as Phil Mafah does, but he lacks a passing catching ability and speed to truly be a starting Running Back. Adams has had limited action as well, but expect these guys to get a bulk of the carries on Saturday. Behind these two guys is RS/Fr Jarvis Green and Freshman David Eziomume. Green was an underrated recruit from Dutch Fork Highschool, and he has been injury riddled his entire career at Clemson so far. However, Green has a burst of speed and break tackling ability that is one of the best I have seen at the Highschool level. Eziomume was a 4-star recruit that has not been given his opportunity to shine yet in his redshirt season. However, I hope the Tigers showcase the abilities of all four of these guys to ease the concern at Running Back for next season.
Painter’s Prediction:
Looking into this week, it is almost impossible for Clemson to lose to the Citadel. A lot would have to go in the Citadel’s favor to upset the Tigers within Death Valley, and it is not expected especially with Clemson’s improved ability to protect the rock. The Citadel is having their best season since 2019 under second year Head Coach Maurice Drayton. However, the Tigers have preyed on poor opponents all season long, and I do not expect that to change. The final score of this game will come down to how Clemson’s back-ups and young players perform, but Cade Klubnik and Co. should be able to jump on the Bulldogs early and often. Clemson will win 59-13. The current spread is -49.5 in Clemson’s favor, and my current prediction tells us to take the Citadel to cover. I am currently 8-2 in predictions, and 6-4 ATS.
Sources:
“NCAA College Football FCS Current Team Stats | NCAA.com.” NCAA.com, 2018, www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/695. Accessed 18 Nov. 2024.
ESPN. “ESPN.” ESPN.com, 2019, www.espn.com/.