Painter’s Preview: Clemson at Texas, CFP 1st Round

Clemson returns to the Playoff for the first time in since 2020; however, things look differently than the last time the Tigers were in this position. Clemson was able to make the first year of the 12-Team Playoff which involves four rounds of games and one round played on college campuses. While the Tigers did not play their way into the Playoff throughout the year, an ACC Championship win secured Clemson a spot despite only being ranked 16th in the country. Clemson will travel to Austin, TX to play the No. 3 Ranked Texas Longhorns for the first time in school history. Quarterback Cade Klubnik will also be returning to his home state in which he has never lost a game in for a rematch with Texas Quarterback Quinn Ewers. The Tigers may have not deserved to be here being the only team with 3 losses; however, everything is in front of them now. We will see if Clemson will be able to put together some good performances or if we will just be a first round exit?

Clemson Preview:

The Clemson Offense has looked much improved from the past three seasons; however, spurts of inefficiency have still arisen during games. While the Tigers have scored over 30 in 7 out of 13 games, there have been 3 games in which they have scored 21 or less (ESPN). Against SEC opponents this season, Clemson has scored only a combined 17 points, and the Texas Defense is hoping to keep that trend going (ESPN). Despite some of the inefficiency, Quarterback Cade Klubnik has had a fantastic season, Klubnik has thrown for 3,303 passing yards, 33 TDs, and 5 INTs while rushing for 458 yards and 7 TDs (ESPN). Cade Klubnik has been one of the most improved players in the country despite the lack of national attention. Klubnik is third in all of College Football in passing touchdowns and has the 15th best QBR (ESPN). He also won the ACC Championship Game MVP which marks the second time he has won that award, and he is only the third ever player to win the award twice. Also, as mentioned, Klubnik will be returning to his home on Saturday, and he will need another great performance to get the Tigers over Texas. Catching the ball for Klubnik and going against this tough Secondary will be a collection of four key guys for Clemson. Leading this unit is RS/So WR Antonio Williams who has caught 71 passes for 838 yards and 10 TDs (ESPN). Williams has been the clear top target all season working out of the slot, and expect the Tigers to get him involved early after a quiet game in the ACC Championship Game. Behind Williams are the two star studded Freshmen Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore. Wesco has 38 receptions for 678 yards and 5 TDs, while Moore has 36 receptions for 535 yards and 4 TDs (ESPN). Both guys are coming off two completely different weeks where Wesco over 140 receiving yards and 2 TDs, while Moore struggled throughout the game with multiple drops. Despite what each of their last games looked like, Clemson will need both Freshmen on their A game against the best Secondary in College Football. The final key guy is Senior TE Jake Briningstool. Briningstool has been a safety blanket for Klubnik for the past two seasons and has caught 45 passes for 461 yards and 7 TDs this season (ESPN). The Tigers have had a couple of Portal entries from two Receivers, one of which who would be a contributor in Troy Stellato. Luckily for Clemson, Receiver Tyler Brown has been cleared to play for this contest and will most likely play a key role in depth for the Tigers during this contest. Clemson’s rushing attack for the past four games against Power Conference opponents has been quiet a struggle. During those games, the threat rushing the ball has been Quarterback Cade Klubnik; however, that feat needs to change for Clemson to have success in the Playoffs. Starting Senior RB Phil Mafah has been dealing with an injury, but continues to play despite him visibly being hurt. This has halted Mafah’s production, but maybe a couple weeks of rest can set the veteran back to playing health. Behind Mafah, RS/Fr Jay Haynes was hurt against SMU and will most likely miss the rest of the season, so the backup RB responsibilities have been laid on a collection of RS/So Keith Adams Jr., RS/Fr Jarvis Green, and Freshman David Eziomume. If Mafah is at 80%, I do not expect to see a lot fo these guys. However, if Mafah is playing like he has been, the Tigers need on of these guys to provide a spark off the bench. Clemson’s Offensive Line will have another tough challenge against Texas who uses their fast Linebackers to create a lot of pressure. Texas creates 2.8 sacks per game which ranks 19th in the country, but it is below Clemson Opponents SMU, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, and South Carolina (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). The Clemson OL will not be seeing anything new, and while they struggled against Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech, their performance against South Carolina and SMU put the Tigers in a position to win.

The Tiger Defense have become known for fast starts this past couple of weeks, but a lack of an ability to finish has given teams opportunities to win games that Clemson has controlled. SMU and South Carolina both scored 10+ points in the fourth quarter to tie the game in SMU’s case and even win the game in South Carolina’s case. Pittsburgh also scored 10+ points in the fourth quarter to take the lead late, needing a long Cade Klubnik TD run to save the win (ESPN). Clemson’s Defense normally in known for getting a big time play in those late game moments; however, this season it has been different. These guys will have an opportunity to prove other wise on Saturday on the road. Clemson’s Defense has had a breakout star in DE T.J. Parker who is one of the reasons for the Tigers getting so many fast starts. Parker has 11 sacks on the season, but he has also created 6 forced fumbles which broke the record for most caused fumbles by a defender in Clemson History (ESPN). Parker is only a Sophomore and will most likely return to the Tigers next season as he looks to gain some momentum in the Playoff to carry into his Junior campaign. Along side Parker on the Defensive Line, there has not been a lot of other sack production. However, DT Peter Woods has finally returned to 100% health and has created pressure needed on the inside to help try and stop the run. Clemson has struggled to stop the run all season long ranking 45th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game with 139 (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). While Texas is normally a pass heavy team, expect them to come out trying to control the line-of-scrimmage on Saturday. The Clemson Linebacker Core is one of the best position groups on this roster when looking at the starters. The Tigers start Senior Barrett Carter, Junior Wade Woodaz, and Freshman Sammy Brown. This group fills up the top three spots for tackles, while also combining for 11.5 sacks over the course of this season. Sammy Brown has changed the dynamic of this unit for the better coming into a starting role, and it will be interesting to see how these guys perform against the Texas passing attack. The Clemson Secondary has the toughest task for this defense on Saturday trying to stick onto the dynamic pass catchers that Texas possesses. Clemson failed to slow down SMU’s QB Kevin Jennings allowing over 300 passing yards, but they were helped out by some untimely drops (ESPN). Clemson will not get the luxury of drops on Saturday; however, they are hoping to trick QB Quinn Ewers into some interceptions. Clemson ranks 18th in interceptions per game, and Ewers has been known to throw up some passes into tight coverage. Sophomore Cornerback Avieon Terrell got picked on against SMU, and he has struggled a little over the past month. However, he is looking to right the ship on his biggest stage yet in a big time game for Clemson. The Tigers will need to force Ewers into some turnovers to give them a chance in this game.

Texas Preview:

The Texas Longhorns were able to finish second in the SEC in their first year in the conference putting together a season that returns them back to the Playoff for the second straight season. The Longhorns went 11-2 throughout the year losing only to Georgia, but concerns on who they have played have risen in the College Football community when attempting to determine if they can win big games. Head Coach Steve Sarkisian is hoping to silence the doubters by winning a game in the Playoff this time around as they were a first round exit last season losing to Washington and Michael Penix Jr. Offensively, Texas is led by former No. 1 ranked QB Quinn Ewers who has been apart of the Texas program for 3 seasons after redshirting at Ohio State (ESPN). Ewers came into this season as a Heisman favorite and 1st round draft pick; however, his play combined with a couple of injuries have ruined that type of trajectory. Ewers has thrown for 2,665 passing yards, 25 TDs, and 9 INTs throughout this year while only having negative rushing yards on the season (ESPN). Ewers is a threat only from inside the pocket not having the ability to scramble and make something happen with his legs. That is why many Longhorn fans are calling for RS/Fr Arch Manning to start over Ewers. Manning played in relief of Quinn Ewers during his injury throwing for over 225 yards in each performance while scoring 10 total touchdowns through 3 games (ESPN). Arch Manning was even put in over Ewers during their first game against Georgia in order to provide a spark; however, he looked just as inefficient as Quinn resulting in Ewers coming back into the game. Manning is now primarily used as a running Quarterback in certain situations, but many fans and experts are still calling for him to start. Expect Clemson to see plenty of sets with Manning at Quarterback considering Clemson’s struggles with rushing QBs. The Longhorns’ Running Backs have been thrown into a loop this season as expected start C.J. Baxtor torn his PCL and LCL before the season starting ending his season before it started, and fellow RB Christian Clark torn his Achilles ending his season as well. Stepping into that position to start the season was Junior Jayden Blue; however, Sophomore Quintrevion Wisner is now in the starting role. Blue has rushed for over 500 rushing yards and 6 TDs, while Wisner has rushed for over 800 yards but just 3 TDs (ESPN). Texas is majorly a passing attack team with the injuries to their Running Backs, and their Receiving Core is one of the best in the country. Leading the Longhorns in receptions is Senior TE Gunnar Helm who has caught 49 passes for 611 yards and 5 TDs (ESPN). Clemson has notoriously struggled with guarding Tight Ends in big time games, so expect Helm to make some big time catches that help Texas in this contest. Behind Helm, their Receiving Core is filled with newcomers to this team. Texas took three Junior Transfers Matthew Golden, Isiah Bond, and Silas Bolden with former 5-star Wide Receiver Ryan Wingo. Golden is a former Houston Cougar who has caught 47 passes for over 700 yards and 8 TDs, and Bond is a former Alabama Crimson Tide who has caught 33 passes for 538 yards and 5 TDs (ESPN). Silas Bolden has not produced to the level that Bond and Golden have; however, he is a key depth piece for this Offense that throws it around. Freshman Ryan Wingo has been a pleasant surprise to start his career almost receiving 400 yards and 2 TDs, and he has flashed his potential throughout the season (ESPN). All of these guys have helped Texas rank 12th in the country in passing yards a game with 280 yds/g (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Blocking for this Offense is a veteran group with a ton of future draft picks, but injuries down the stretch have hurt this unit. Junior Left Tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. who is a projected first rounder has suffered an ankle injury missing the SEC Championship Game, and he may even miss this first or their potential second Playoff Game. Opposite of Banks is first year starter Cameron Williams. Williams is a Junior getting a lot of draft buzz because of the traits that he posses combined with his potential past development. However, this unit has given up 2.2 sacks per game ranking 71st in the country (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Many of these sacks could be on Ewers because of his lack of mobility, but either way they do give up some sacks throughout games. The Texas OL will play a vital role in their hopes of victory because the Clemson Defensive Line has been playing better and better football for the past 3 or 4 games.

Defensively, the Texas Longhorns have one of the best units in all of College Football. This unit has given up just 12.5 points per game, and they are not looking to change that coming into this game against an inconsistent Clemson Offense (ESPN). The Longhorn Defense is led by Sophomore Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. Hill is the former top LB in the country and has led the Longhorns in tackles by 29 and is second in sacks with 7.5 (ESPN). Hill has also forced 4 fumbles this season, and his hard-nosed style of play will make life difficult for anyone coming across the middle of the field. With Hill in the Linebacker Core is Freshman Collin Simmons who leads Texas in sacks with 8 (ESPN). Simmons is more of an off-ball Linebacker that is used in pass rush a ton, and he is more of an Defensive End than Linebacker (“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services”). The other top Linebacker on this roster is five-year Longhorn David Gbenda. Gbenda plays beside Hill, and his experience has been vital all year long in helping this Defense be successful. The Texas Defensive Line is not very disruptive in the passing attack as they only accumulate for 4 out of 38 sacks that the Longhorns have caused (ESPN). Texas relies heavily on their Linebackers to get to the passer, and the DL specializes more in stopping the run. Their Defensive Line is a veteran unit that helps only give up 106 rushing yards per game which ranks 12th in the country (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). However, the true best unit on this team is the Texas Secondary. Their Secondary ranks 1st in passing yards given up per game with only 143 (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Leading this group is the 2024 Thorpe Trophy Winner, Jahdae Barron. The fifth-year Longhorn has broken out in his final season deflecting 9 passes while catching 5 interceptions (ESPN). Barron will be lined-up with Clemson’s top targets all game long hoping to shut down their production on the outside. It does not get any easy on the other side of the field as Sophomore Malik Muhammad has put on yet another good season as a Cornerback deflecting 6 passes this season. Muhammad was a valuable piece as a Freshman for Texas last season, and he has increased his role this year. Securing the back line of the Texas Defense is RS/Jr Michael Taaffe and former Clemson Tiger Andrew Mukuba. Taaffe is second in tackles on this roster, and he has even deflected 7 passes and caught 2 INTs (ESPN). Andrew Mukuba was a great player for Clemson for three straight seasons; however, he was not happy with where he was and decided to leave. He has thrived in his time at Texas ranking 4th in tackles while catching 5 INTs (ESPN). The Senior has put up the best numbers of his career so far with this Texas team, but the Tigers will be hoping to show the young star that he should have stayed with them. Clemson has thrived in protecting the ball all season, but this Texas Defense ranks 7th in created turnovers per game which is just in front of South Carolina who is 8th (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Clemson was able to protect the ball all game against the Gamecocks until the last pass, and we will see if Cade Klubnik can protect the ball in his home state.

Keys to a Tiger Victory:

Get Cade Going: As you all know by now, Cade Klubnik is returning to his hometown for this first ever 12-Team Playoff and his first ever Playoff game. Klubnik has been the gas to the engine that is this Clemson Offense all season long, and he has been snubbed off of All-ACC Teams and top ten Heisman voting. However, Clemson and Cade have an opportunity to show the world on Saturday that they have been wrong. His passing ability is much improved, but he has not seen a Secondary as good as Texas’ all season. Especially with the questions at Running Back, Cade Klubnik will be the reason that Clemson wins this game. The most passing yards Texas had given up all season was 202 to Michigan starter Davis Warren. Other than that, their closest win was against Vanderbilt in which Diego Pavia threw for 175 passing yards and ran for almost 70 yards (ESPN). Cade Klubnik will need over 225 passing yards and 50 rushing yards to give Clemson a chance in this game on the road.

Disrupt Ewers: Texas Quarterback Quinn Ewers is a great pocket passer who has the ability to throw all over a Defense if given the time to do so. However, Ewers is not a QB that is going to be making a lot of off platform throws or running around the field to make these throws. A lot of the times that Ewers is caused to make these off platform throws they do not end up well for the Longhorns or he just ends up sacked with pressured heavily. Clemson has the opportunity to get to Ewers often because of his lack of ability to create outside the pocket, and they will need to disrupt him into bad throws to slow down the Longhorns passing attack.

Any Running Back Production: Many Clemson Fans including myself have watched the Tiger Offense have zero Running Back production against the last four FBS opponents, and it has caused their Offense to become predictable and inconsistent. No matter how good a passing attack can be, it will still become inconsistent without a good rushing attack to balance out the offense. Especially against this Texas Secondary, Clemson will need either Phil Mafah or one of the other back-up RBs mentioned above to step up and produce for the Tigers to win this game. Clemson needs one consistent Running Back to average 4 yards a carry to ensure the Offense does not become inconsistent against Texas.

Tiger Watch: T.J. Moore & Bryant Wesco Jr.

With all the talk of the dangerous Texas Secondary, I think it is pretty obvious that Tiger Watch is the two Freshmen Receivers T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr. These guys will be going up against the best Secondary they have ever seen on Saturday, and they will need to be productive in creating space to give Cade Klubnik space to throw the ball. Early in the season when Clemson played Georgia, neither of these guys played valuable snaps and it showed in the areas Klubnik had to attempt to throw the ball. Wesco stepped up to the stage and had one of the best games of his career so far in the ACC Championship Game catching 8 passes for 143 yards and 2 TDs, while Moore did not perform so well dropping a few passes (ESPN). Wesco has to stay at that level of play, and T.J. Moore has to be a valuable option opposite of Wesco in order to give Clemson big plays against a Longhorn Defense that does not give them up. These guys stepped up during the South Carolina game, and they will need to take yet another step to compete on this level of play.

Painter’s Prediction:

Going through this entire week, I have struggled with where I want to go with this game. Up to this point, Clemson’s season has been sort of poetic. They reached the Playoffs even with three losses, won the ACC Championship on a 56-yard FG, and now Cade Klubnik is returning home while also returning Clemson back to the Playoffs. The story book ending is telling me that Clemson will win this game. However, the Texas Defense has stepped up to the plate in every game they have played, and it is almost impossible to say that an inconsistent Clemson Offense will score on this Texas Defense. Texas will win primarily because of their Defense 27-17; however, the Tigers will cover the +11.5 spread. I am currently 10-3 in my predictions and 8-5 ATS.

Sources:

“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services.” Ourlads.com, 2024, www.ourlads.com/.

“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats.” Www.teamrankings.com, www.teamrankings.com/.

“2025 247Sports Composite Player Rankings.” 247Sports, 2024, 247sports.com/Season/2024-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/.

ESPN. “ESPN.” ESPN.com, 2019, www.espn.com/.