Painter’s Preview: Clemson at Pittsburgh
Clemson stays on the road for Week 12 of the College Football season as they travel to Pittsburgh for their final ACC game of the regular season. Clemson enters this game 7-2 (6-1) while the Pittsburgh Panthers are sitting at 7-2 (3-2) coming off back-to-back losses. The Tigers are still hoping for an outside shot at Charlotte if they win this contest as well. Clemson exemplified some heart against Virginia Tech down 7 starters, and they are going to need that kind of effort to possibly save their expectations of a College Football Playoff appearance.
Clemson Preview:
As mentioned above, Clemson was able to get back in the win column this past weekend after a big second half Offense enabled by the outstanding performance from the Tiger Defense. Quarterback Cade Klubnik and Clemson’s Offense played their worst half since UGA in the first half, and it looked like 2023 again. However, great play from the Defense kept them in the game, and a touchdown drive to start the second half propelled the Offense to 24 second half points. Klubnik’s performance in the first half was limited to insanely quick pressure and bad drops, but his heart and improvement showed in the second half as he shed off an untouched rusher, stayed on his feet, and threw a 41-yard touchdown pass to T.J. Moore. Klubnik finished the day 16/34, 211 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 15 carries, and 30 rushing yards (ESPN). His completion percentage is misleading due to the 4+ drops that occurred in the Receiving Corps, but Klubnik did what he had to do in order for Clemson to win. Most fans would have been happy with a consistent performance like this from Klubnik after last season. I hate that he is no longer in the Heisman Race, but Klubnik is still having a great season as a Clemson QB. It will be interesting to see how he performances against a Pittsburgh Defense that thrives on interceptions and sacks. Catching the ball for Klubnik during the game was the normal group that we have been accustomed to; however, some dropped passes allowed for WR Cole Turner to play some more, and his 29-yard TD Reception sparked the Tigers second half because of his contested jump-ball catch. Those dropped passes came from just about every Receiver including Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr, and T.J. Moore. These guys need to shake off that bad performance quick because they are going to be needed to create more quick separation early just as they did against VT because of the Panthers’ pass rush. Running Back Phil Mafah had yet another good day at the office, rushing for 128 yards on 26 carries averaging almost 5 yds/carry (ESPN). Mafah is a consistent workhouse for this Offense, and it would be difficult to imagine Clemson without him. He plays almost every snap of the ball game which is unheard of nowadays from a Running Back because of the wear and tear that happens to their bodies. He also has a difficult challenge against Pittsburgh as their rush defense barley gives up over 100 rushing yds/g. Expect him to continue to receive 20+ carries/g in every tough match-up for the Tigers, even on Saturday. The main concern on the Tiger Offense is the Offensive Line. After six great weeks of football, the Offensive Line has reverted back to their 2023 form giving up 7 sacks in the last two games. Clemson cannot afford to get behind the stick that often against Pittsburgh, and the Offensive Line has to step up. The Tigers were without 2 starters on Saturday (Marcus Tate and Tristan Leigh), but Freshman Elyjah Thurmon proved his worth coming in and solidifying the Left Tackle spot. Tate and Leigh’s availability is up in the air for Saturday, but whoever is out there needs to step up or it will be hard for Clemson to win again without another spectacular Defensive performance.
After a week of Fans throwing the Clemson Defense under the bus, they stepped up bigtime on Saturday. The Tiger Defense was not expected to stop the run at all, but they limited the Hokies to just 40 yards even though both their starting QB and RB played. Defensive Coordinator Wes Goodwin is coaching for his job, and it shows. He adjusted the Tiger Defense from a 4-2-5 to both a 4-3 and a 3-3-5 against Virginia Tech. This added Linebacker, Freshman Sammy Brown, was the difference maker for Clemson. Brown finished the night leading Clemson in tackles, sacks, and TFLs (ESPN). Even though Brown was added to the lineup, the Tigers were still missing 3 starters and starting Cornerback Avieon Terrell played only half of the game. This Defense just showed heart throughout the game, and they wanted it more than the Hokies did. This mentality needs to be seen throughout the rest of the year for Clemson to win out. While the Tiger Defense stopped the rushing attack, their pass rush pressure was poor as they finished the night with only one sack. This area needs to be improved on because if the Tigers give Panther QB Eli Holstein enough time, he will dice up the Clemson Secondary. Pittsburgh’s Offensive Line has given up 19 sacks on the season, and the Tigers need to run that number up to create disruption in the passing attack that the Panthers rely on heavily. Clemson is expecting to get Star DE Peter Woods back for this contest as he missed last week due to a concussion. Woods’ presence elevates the Tigers pass rush, but they need to be prepared to play without him especially if he gets hurt again. Defensive End Jahiem Lawson is still yet to have a break out game, but it could come against Pitt if Woods does not play. Fellow DE T.J. Parker leads the Tigers in sacks with 5, and he is a prime candidate to get in the Panther backfield (ESPN). As mentioned above, the Clemson Linebacker Core has been switched to starting 3, and these guys also need to get to Holstein. DC Wes Goodwin is known for his Linebacker Blitzes especially if the Tigers play a 3-3-5, so it will be important for them to get to Holstein a couple of times as well to help the struggling Defensive Line. The Clemson Secondary played yet another good game against the Hokies, and they will be targeted early on Saturday. The Panthers rely on the passing attack to move the ball, so the Tiger Secondary has another QB to stop. The Secondary gave up just 188 passing yards this past weekend, and they caught two interceptions (Ashton Hampton and R.J. Mickens) and should have caught a couple more (ESPN). Freshman CB Ashton Hampton played the most CB snaps because of an injury to Avieon Terrell and poor play from Jeadyn Lukus, and he was great. He had VT’s best Receiver blanketed many times, and he even came up with one of the best interceptions that I have ever seen. Hampton’s playing time may start to increase as the season dwindles down, and I expect him to continue his great play. The Secondary needs to continue to show how good they are this week or Clemson may not walk out with a victory.
Pittsburgh Preview:
After starting 7-0 and winning some close contests, Pittsburgh was starting to look at a possible ACC Championship appearance until they had to go down to SMU. SMU handed the Panthers their first loss in dominant fashion 48-25; however, their opportunity to make the ACC Championship was still possible until this past weekend. Pittsburgh welcomed Virginia into town, and the Cavaliers destroyed Pitts hopes winning 24-19 as they handed put their second total and conference loss. Pittsburgh is looking to end Clemson’s longshot ACC Championship appearance as they welcome the Tigers into town at noon on Saturday.
The Panther Offense is led by RS/Freshman Transfer Eli Holstein. Holstein is a former 4-star recruit who committed to Alabama for his redshirt season, and obviously transferred to Pittsburgh during the off-season. He started the year off fast for the Panthers, but has slowed down in the past couple of games. Holstein has thrown for 2,174 passing yards, 17 TDs, 6 INTs on a 62% completion percentage (ESPN). He has led the Panthers to their 7-2 record; however, he has struggled in his last four games. In the last four games, he has thrown for only 610 passing yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs on a 56% completion percentage. As Pitts’ season is wearing down, Holstein’s play has regressed, and the Tigers will need to exploit that on Saturday to ensure a victory. Eli Holstein did leave their last game early with an injury that could be worth monitoring, and his availability could be up in the air. Backing up Holstein is Junior Nate Yarnell who was horrendous in relief against Virginia failing to led the Panthers to a comeback victory as he threw 2 INTs (ESPN). Through the season Yarnell has been serviceable in relief throwing for 314 yards, 5 TDs, and 2 INTs in limited time (ESPN). However, expect Holstein to tough threw whatever injury he has in this important match-up. Catching the ball the majority of the time are Receivers Senior Konata Mumpfield, Sophomore Kenny Johnson, RS/Jr Transfer Raphael Williams Jr, and starting Junior Transfer Running Back Desmond Reid (“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services”). Mumpfield was the clear top target early into the season, yet his opportunities have decreased in the last four games. Johnson is opposite of Mumpfield on the field, and their target share has evened out throughout the season. Williams Jr, a former Western Carolina Catamount like my High School DC Jeffrey Beall, fills the slot role for the Panthers, and his experience has helped Pittsburgh. Running Back Desmond Reid is heavily involved in the passing attack, and he is almost the leading the Panthers in catches. The small framed Transfer, who is also from Western Carolina like his teammate Raphael Williams Jr and my former DC Jeffrey Beall, is vital to the success of their passing attack. The Panthers rank 27th in passing yards per game, and it will be interesting to see how they match-up against the Tigers Secondary (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). As mentioned earlier, RB Desmond Reid is the headlined back for the Panthers, and there are not many options past him in the rushing attack. Reid has only 670 rushing yards on 118 carries and 4 TDs, and the next RB after him has less than 150 rushing yards (ESPN). Quarterback Eli Holstein will not immediately resort to scrambling or using his legs, but he has proven he will scramble when needed. His 6’4 225 frame makes allows for him to take hits when needed, but his injury concerns could make him hesitate before taking off. Their rushing attack ranks 91st in the country; however, they may be able to get it going against a struggling Clemson rush Defense. Pittsburgh’s Offensive Line has been subpar throughout the season ranks 104th in the country as they average giving up 2.6 sacks/game (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). It will interesting how the Pittsburgh Offense fairs against a Clemson Defense that looked like their standard again against Virginia Tech.
The Pittsburgh Defense gives up 26 points a game against FBS Opponents with 6 of their 11 starters being underclassmen. The Panther Defense was hoping to improve coming into the season after poor performances last season that led to a 3-9 record. Their improvement has been seen a little; however, they are still not where they want to be. Pitt returns 4 out of 8 of their top tacklers from last season, but their development coupled with taking six transfers has helped their Defense improve (“Sports Reference | Sports Stats, Fast, Easy, and Up-To-Date | Sports-Reference.com”). Leading this Pittsburgh Defense for the second straight season is Senior Safety Donovan McMillon. McMillon is a 6’2 205 pound athlete that lets opposing players know he is there as he has led the Panthers in total tackles for two straight seasons (ESPN). Helping out McMillon up front, is RS/So DL Jimmy Scott and Sophomore Linebackers Kyle Louis, Braylan Lovelace, and Rasheem Biles. These guys make up the most of the Panthers sack production as each guy has 5 sacks except for Lovelace who has 4 (ESPN). These 19 sacks make up the 30 that Pittsburgh has on the season, and these guys are licking their lips at the Tiger Offensive Line that has given up 7 sacks in the last two contests. Pittsburgh ranks 5th in the country in sacks per game, and they are gearing up for another sack-fest. Despite the high number of sacks that this Defense gets, they still struggle mightily in stopping opposing teams passing attacks, ranking 104th in the country (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). The Panthers are going to have to slow down Cade Klubnik on Saturday to ensure their season can end on a high note. While Pittsburgh has struggled to slow down passing attacks, their rush defense has been top 20 in the country (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Senior Defensive End Transfer Nate Matlock from Kansas State has bolstered the Panther run defense with help from their deep Linebacker Corps. Pittsburgh has been able to create many interceptions because of their great pass rush leading the Panthers to rank 17th in the country in Interceptions per game (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Cade Klubnik and the entire Clemson Offense have been great about protecting the ball, but will they change that trend because of increased pressure from the Panther front?
Keys to a Tiger Victory:
No Interceptions: This Pittsburgh Defense has lived on interceptions all season in order to bail out their poor coverage from their Secondary. Cade Klubnik needs to be prepared to see a lot of pressure to ensure that it does not rattle him into interceptions. Syracuse’s QB Kyle McCord has shown us how quickly a game can get out of hand because of interceptions thrown to Pittsburgh. Klubnik threw his interception against the Hokies because of pressure and a willingness to make a play happen. He needs to take what the Panthers give him on Saturday and trust in his Receivers to make plays. Not throwing interceptions also relies on the Receivers as well. They need to create quick separation for Klubnik, and they need to catch the ball. Clemson will not win this game if the Receivers have 4+ drops yet again because Pittsburgh has thrived on the tip drill all year. Clemson needs a clean passing attack on Saturday to win.
3+ Sacks: The Tiger Front 7 stepped up and proved they can stop the run against Virginia Tech, but they have still yet to have a game where they completely dominant the opposing Quarterback. The Panthers rely heavily on the passing attack, and they will drop Holstein back to throw it more often than not on Saturday. The Tiger Front needs to create pressure and sacks to help out the solid performing Secondary. If Holstein has all day to throw, then the Clemson Secondary will get torn up because you cannot guard Receivers forever. Clemson needs 3+ sacks on Saturday to ensure they create disruption in Pitts’ passing attack. Look for T.J. Parker and the Linebackers to fill that role for Clemson.
Heart: Clemson played with heart this past weekend, and they wanted it more in a tough game for the first time this season. This mentality and want to win needs to continue against Pittsburgh. Clemson may not be very healthy for this game either and Pitt will give them their best shot, so they need to walk into their stadium with more heart. Injuries suck, but they happen and it is next man up. I believe the phrase in next man up has not been with the Clemson Program for a few years because of the lack of depth because of the Portal and the lack of heart. Clemson did not have their best talented guys against Virginia Tech, but they had heart. Clemson needs this again against Pittsburgh. If they do not have it, the game will quickly turn into what happened against Georgia and Louisville.
Tiger Watch: Offensive Line
As hinted on above multiple times, the Clemson Offensive Line is vital to give the Tigers the best opportunity to win this weekend. Pittsburgh gets after the QB at a rate that is top five in the country, and if they are able to disrupt Clemson’s Offense that often, the Tigers will not win. Clemson’s OL was out played by the Hokie front, and it caused disruptions seen throughout the entire first half. Luckily the Offense was saved by a miracle performance by the Defense. I do not think that the Tiger Defense will bale out the Offense as often as last weekend, meaning Clemson’s Offense cannot waste opportunities and that falls on the shoulders of the big guys up front.
Painter’s Prediction:
Despite the disappointment from losing at home to Louisville a couple of weeks ago, Clemson is some how still alive in the race for the ACC Championship Game. Clemson is in a must win scenario just like last week. They did not put out their best performance against Virginia Tech Offensively, but they stepped up in the areas that were needed when it mattered the most. The Tigers are in a tough spot, but if they win this weekend, their hopes are still alive. Clemson will exemplify more heart and win 31-20 on the road against Pittsburgh. The current spread is -10 in Clemson’s favor, and my prediction tells us to take Clemson to cover. My current record for predictions is 7-2, and I am 6-3 ATS.
Sources:
“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services.” Ourlads.com, 2024, www.ourlads.com/.
“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats.” Www.teamrankings.com, www.teamrankings.com/.
“Sports Reference | Sports Stats, Fast, Easy, and Up-To-Date | Sports-Reference.com.” Sports-Reference.com, 2019, www.sports-reference.com/.
ESPN. “ESPN.” ESPN.com, 2019, www.espn.com/.