Painter’s Preview: Clemson at Florida State

Clemson will enter into Tallahassee to a long awaited reunion with former Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei; however, new information is leading to D.J. not playing for the Seminoles due to a hand injury. Tiger Fandom has already expressed their opinions on that situation as this match-up has been circled for a while. Our Tigers enter the game 3-1 as they have looked strong since their poor performance against the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1. The story has been far different from the Seminoles, as they enter this week 1-4 after taking a beating on the road from new ACC opponent SMU. Clemson is looking to continue their gained momentum, and Florida State is hoping to right their ship with a big win in a rivalry match-up.

Clemson Preview:

After two near perfect performance from the Clemson Starters, a tiny recession was seen against Stanford this past weekend. However, despite this recession of performance, our Tigers still came out on-top 40-14 against a very underrated Cardinal team. Quarterback Cade Klubnik shined once again, accounting for 5 total TDs while facing a good bit of pressure from the Stanford Front 7. This week; however, Klubnik faces his first true road game of the season which was an area of struggle for the Junior last season. Last season Klubnik threw only 5 touchdown passes on the road while also throwing 5 interceptions, and his QB rating was about 23 points lower than it was during home games (ESPN). Klubnik’s new found confidence fans have seen since UGA must be on display Saturday night for Clemson to continue their domination of opponents. Even though Clemson appears to be the clear favorite on the road, a rocking Doak Campbell Stadium will be a good test for Klubnik. As Coach Swinney has been saying, “Good teams win at home, but Great teams win on the road.” We will see Saturday if Cade Klubnik and Co. has that ability to go on the road and dominant. Klubnik does not have to do it all alone Saturday as the FSU’s defensive trends suggest that the Tigers should be able to feed star Running Back Phil Mafah all nigh long. Mafah has still yet to be the featured player he was last season due to the vast improvement of Cade Klubnik, but Mafah still has done his part throughout the year. Mafah has averaged 8 yds/carry so far this season, and he is primed for a big performance on the road (ESPN). The answer against the Florida State Defense so far has been to run the ball, so I expect Garrett Riley and Clemson to get Mafah involved early and often. The Tiger Receiving Core was seen to also have a recession this past game as their were drops from Veteran TE Jake Briningstool and Freshman standout Bryant Wesco Jr, but they were still able to dominant the Stanford Secondary led by Wesco’s 104 yds (ESPN). This Core is still led by Antonio Williams who sees the most targets throughout the game. Freshman Bryant Wesco Jr’s immediate impact is clear as he is the first Tiger since Sammy Watkins to account for 100 yards in 2 of his first 4 games even though Wesco has truly only played in 2 contests so far. Freshman T.J. Moore’s impact is not so obvious yet, but his presence was able to cause 3 defensive pass interferences on the Cardinals. This Core continues to show its depth as any given depth piece is liable to have a good game. These depth pieces can include RS/So Cole Turner, RS/Jr Troy Stellato, Sophomore Tyler Brown, or Junior Adam Randall (currently injured). The Clemons Offensive Line has performed good all season long giving up only 3 sacks to QB Cade Klubnik (ESPN). They will be relied on heavily against the Seminoles to establish dominance at the line-of-scrimmage, and I expect them to bounce back after just an okay performance against Stanford. The Tiger Offense has showcased their ability to create explosive plays, but their ability to create a slow methodical drive has yet to be seen.

The Tiger Defense has looked great all year except for the second half against the Georgia Bulldogs. They were exposed during the first half against the Stanford rushing attack, but the “bend don’t break" mentally truly kicked in as Stanford was unsuccessful in the Redzone 4 times. These critical stops led to the Cardinals only putting up 14 points with 7 of those coming in garbage time. The Defense finally exploded in the sacks and tackles for loss stats as they were able to obtain 4 and 10 respectively against the Cardinals (ESPN). This trend will need to continue they are can pressure RS/Fr QB Brock Glenn. The Tigers have been playing without their star player Peter Woods for the past two weeks, and the decline in production from the Defensive Line was evident against Stanford. However, Woods is set to return, and his presence will bolster the Clemson DL back into its dominant form. Clemson’s Linebackers all had exceptional performances this past Saturday led by Senior Barrett Carter. The collection of Carter, Junior Wade Woodaz, and Freshman Sammy Brown totaled 23 tackles, 3 sacks, 6 TFLs, and 1 INT (ESPN). This production as a group was seen for the first time and the continued performance of these guys will be vital in Clemson’s success. The Seminoles will attempt to establish the run game early, and the Clemson Front 7 will need to be playing their best game in order to make Glenn beat them over the top. However, Glenn will have a tough task facing the Clemson Secondary that is coming off a brilliant performance. The Secondary allowed just 125 passing yards while just allowing the Cardinals to complete less than 50% of their passes. They did this while also grabbing 2 INTs themselves, and they limited star WR Elic Ayomanor to just 4 catches, 50 yards, and 1 TD (ESPN). This is the second straight week the Secondary has limited the opposing team’s best offensive player which gives Tiger Fans hope while watching the Secondary play. This week the Tigers are not facing a huge threat like Ayomanor, but they will be given the task to limit FSU big plays within the passing game. I expect the Tigers to make Glenn beat them just as they made N.C. State’s C.J. Bailey do. They will accomplish this feat by disrupting opportunities in the run game, and then it comes down to the Secondaries’ performance against Glenn and the Seminole Receivers.

Florida State Preview:

Florida State entered the 2024 season with hopes to avenge being left out of the 2023 College Football Playoffs. While what many though was reloading through the Transfer Portal, FSU faced reality in Week 0 after they lost to Georgia Tech. This loss has spiraled the Seminoles into depths they did not expect Head Coach Mike Norvell to be involved with. The Seminoles attempted to reload through the portal as they brought in 5 new starters for their Offense, but the results have yet to be seen (“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services”). Through 5 games, the Seminole Offense led by Uiagalelei has averaged a measly 15.2 points per game (ESPN). FSU have been calling for the benching of D.J. since the lost to Georgia Tech, and he was bench on the road this past Saturday after throwing his third interception of the day in favor of RS/Fr Brock Glenn. The decision for the Seminole starting Quarterback against Clemson became easy once information was released regarding the hand of Uiagalelei. Glenn was a former 4-star prospect who has started 2 games for the Seminoles: 2023 ACC Championship and 2023 Orange Bowl. In both games combined, Glenn threw for 194 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, and only completed 36% of his passes (ESPN). After winning the ACC Championship game 16-6, the Seminoles led by Glenn lost to Georgia 63-3. Glenn has yet to complete a pass this season, as he was 0-4 in the action seen against SMU (ESPN). Florida State will attempt to rely on the run game against the Tigers, but their expected strength of the Offense has also yet to perform. Led by fifth-year Senior Lawrance Toafili, the FSU Running Back room has only accumulated 326 yards, despite carrying the ball a combined 138 times (2.4 yds/carry) (ESPN). Toafili has been the only bright side of the group has he leads the team with 214 yards on 45 carries (ESPN). Florida State’s rushing struggles have come from a lack of production from Alabama Transfer Roydell Williams and from the weak production from the Quarterback. The Seminole Receiving Core has been halted from production of Uiagalelei, but they are headlined by Seniors Malik Benson (Alabama Transfer) and Ja’Khi Douglas. Both Benson and Douglas have caught 15 passes for 185 yards and 285 yards respectively (ESPN). The Florida State Offensive Line has already given up 12 sacks on the season even though they are starting a veteran group that consists of all Seniors. The underwhelming production of key Transfers has halted the Veteran Florida State Offense, and it is unlikely to see all these glaring issues fixed within a week.

The Seminole Defense has been a brighter spot for the team throughout the season with their ability to keep them in games; however, their past performance has posed questions of their ability. Their most glaring concern has come through the opponents rushing attack. Through 5 games, the Seminoles have given up an average of 165.8 rushing yards a game which ranks 83rd in the nation (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). The FSU Defense expected their 7 Transfers headlined by DE Marvin Jones Jr (Junior) and their returning depth to pick up where their 2023 Defense left off. Instead the Defense has seen a decline caused by the missing production of 6 of their top 10 tacklers and their struggling Offense (“Sports Reference | Sports Stats, Fast, Easy, and Up-To-Date | Sports-Reference.com”). Another concern from the Defense that has been coupled with their offensive struggles has been their ability to get off the field. Florida State currently ranks 124th out of 134 teams in opponent time of possession meaning their Defense has lacked the ability to halt drives created by the opposing Offenses (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). This Defense’s task does not get any easier this week either as they are facing a red hot Clemson Offense that has showcased their ability to attack in all areas. So far this season, the FSU crew has struggled to create enough turnovers to flip momentum of a game. Against the Tigers, they will need a combined effort from their Offense and Defense to limit and create enough turnovers to give them the edge for a season-changing victory.

Keys to a Tiger Victory:

New Road Look for Cade: As mentioned above, Cade Klubnik’s career so far as been characterized by not being able to perform on the road. Even though Klubnik is facing what looks to be a below average FSU team, he is entering into one of the toughest environments in the ACC and College Football. It has been clear so far this season that Garrett Riley likes to get the passing game involved early and often meaning Klubnik will have the opportunities early to make his mark. Clemson needs to see Klubnik effectively using his legs just as he as been while also being an efficient passer. Klubnik has been able to showcase these abilities so far at home, but on the road is a new test. Clemson also needs a turnover free game on Saturday to ensure they do not given the Seminoles an opportunity to shock the world and that starts with Quarterback Cade Klubnik.

Peter Woods and the Defensive Line: Now that the Seminoles have established that D.J. Uiagalelei will not play they will be turning to an extremely unexperienced Brock Glenn. Florida State will attempt to establish the run early into the game especially after seeing Clemson struggle against it this past weekend. However, a returning Peter Woods will need to halt that attack from FSU to ensure that Brock Glenn has to beat them through the air. This is an opportunity for the Clemson Defensive Line to prove they are legit if they are able to walk inside of Doak Campbell and limit the Seminole rushing attack. If Clemson is able to limit Florida State’s rushing production to less than 100 yards it will not be a pretty night for Seminole Fans. The Tiger Defensive Line’s task does not stop with the run game as they will be expected to get pressure often to Glenn in an effort to rattle the new FSU starter. Florida State gives up an average of 2.4 sacks a game, and Clemson will need to at least get to 2 if they want to dominant on Saturday (ESPN).

Win or Tie Turnover Margin: Clemson so far this season has won the turnover margin in each of their 3 wins, and this recipe to success is not always going to happen, but a desperate looking FSU Offense is primed for Clemson to cause turnovers. Quarterback Brock Glenn threw 2 INTs and FSU lost 2 fumbles against the Georgia Bulldogs last season in route to a embarrassing 63-3 loss (ESPN). Georgia caused these turnovers while also not committing on themselves. This is Florida State team is still experiencing issues just as they did during that 2023 Orange Bowl. If Clemson is looking to embarrass the Seminoles, they will need to win the turnover margin. However, I do not believe that winning the turnover margins is necessary the Tigers just need to tie it. It is hard to see a world where this Florida State team beats the Tigers unless Florida State wins the turnover margin.

Tiger Watch: Cade Klubnik

Cade Klubnik was my first Key to a Tiger Victory, and I also believe that he is the Tiger that will be most intriguing to watch this Saturday. This road test will show Klubnik’s ability to adapt and improve from his play last season. It was clear last season that the Tiger Coaching Staff did not have full confidence in Klubnik’s ability especially whilst on the road. The Tigers can easily win this football game by forcing feeding RB Phil Mafah like they did at times last season, but I want to see a different Cade Klubnik. So far us Tiger Fans have seen his vast improvement at home, but the road is a different story. If Klubnik possess the new composure we have seen, it is difficult to see any outcome other than a Tiger blowout. However, if we see the same road Cade from last season this game will be a low scoring dog fight. Just as the Dabo quote mentioned above about great teams winning on the road, Klubnik needs to continue his great play on the road to fuel Tiger Fans with confidence as high aspirations for the season.

Painter’s Prediction:

As I have mentioned many times within this post, Clemson’s red hot status is the complete opposite of what is occurring in Tallahassee so far. Florida State will be starting RS/Fr Brock Glenn who has been poor in his past couple performances for the Seminoles. The Seminole Fans have been calling for the benching of D.J.U., but I believe his poor play is just one of many issues within the Florida State team. It is hard to imagine a world where Clemson loses this game, but it is their first true road test. I expect the environment to be an issue for Klubnik early into the game; however, his improvement suggest that he will settle him once the game gets going. Clemson will come out on-top of the Seminoles 41-13. The current spread of the game is -14 in favor of Clemson after starting out at -15.5. My score prediction says to take Clemson to cover. My current record with predictions is 4-0, and my current record ATS is 3-1.

Sources:

“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats.” Www.teamrankings.com, www.teamrankings.com/.

“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services.” Ourlads.com, 2024, www.ourlads.com/.

ESPN. “ESPN.” ESPN.com, 2019, www.espn.com/.

“Sports Reference | Sports Stats, Fast, Easy, and Up-To-Date | Sports-Reference.com.” Sports-Reference.com, 2019, www.sports-reference.com/.