Painter’s Preview: Clemson vs. SMU ACC Championship

After a brutal loss to South Carolina to end Clemson’s regular season and presumably their Playoff hopes, Miami loss their second ACC game in November to propel the Tigers back to Charlotte for the first time since 2022. In 2022, Cade Klubnik introduced himself to Tiger Fandom throwing for almost 280 yards and 1 TD while running for 30 more and a TD (ESPN). Klubnik came in relief for D.J. U. and led the Tigers to a 39-10 win. Everything was looking up for Clemson, but a poor Orange Bowl performance and a 9-4 season during Cade’s first starting campaign had many fans upset. This season started much better going 6-1, but a 3-2 record in November has destroyed any gained hope within Clemson’s Football Program. Can the Tigers retake the ACC and make the Playoffs with hope that this propels them back into one of the elite programs of College Football? Or will Clemson fall short yet again this season and fail to take advantage of their opportunities?

Clemson Preview:

As we all know, Clemson has been thrown a life raft amongst a sinking ship. The Tigers’ Playoff hopes were all but over until Miami went on the road to Syracuse and lost 42-38 lifting Clemson to Charlotte and the ACC Championship Game. Clemson’s Offense is led by Quarterback Cade Klubnik and despite his terrific performances, the Tigers are averaging just 21.5 points per game since November against Power Conference opponents (ESPN). While the Tiger Offense has still had some explosiveness, inconsistency throughout games has halted production along side some bad situational play calling. Clemson’s coaching staff has looked conservative all throughout November, and it has cost them a rivalry game and almost a game on the road at Pittsburgh. Will Clemson empty the clip on Saturday or will conservative play calling eliminate the Tigers from Playoff contention? Cade Klubnik is coming off one of his best performances of the year against South Carolina. Despite the loss, Klubnik totaled 342 yards and 2 TDs against one of the best defenses in the country (ESPN). This was with help from a healthy Offensive Line which allowed just one sack during the game. Clemson is expected to continue to play this healthy group on Saturday barring any injuries or setbacks, and OL Coach Matt Luke has the chance to have the big boys playing well for back-back weeks. The Offensive Line plays yet another team that thrives on sacks, but last week proved they can compete with the best. Klubnik will be hoping for time in the pocket as the Mustangs struggle to stop the passing attack, and the Tigers Receivers are looking to have a big game in a live or die game. Leading the way will be top target RS/So Antonio Williams who almost eclipsed 100 yards last week, missing the total by just one. Williams has been stellar all season; however, he was getting banged up throughout the South Carolina game and his status could be up in the air. Expect to see Williams give it a go in this game because of the stakes on the line. Behind Williams, it is clear that the former high-rated Freshmen have acclimated themselves to College Football. Both T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr. had multiple big catches, and both had over 60 receiving yards (ESPN). Last weeks performance by both players put them both over the 500 yard mark in the season, and they are looking for another big time performance on Saturday. A possible unexpected addition to this Clemson Receiving Core on Saturday could be Sophomore WR Tyler Brown. Brown has not played since Week 3 because of an ankle injury and has redshirted this season, but can now be available for postseason play. Brown was the leading Receiver for Clemson last season and could be a shot in the arm for the Tigers. Senior TE Jake Briningstool has been a popular target for Cade Klubnik in his career catching the second most passes on the team. Briningstool is hoping for a stand out performance to help cement his legacy as Clemson Tiger Tight-End. The current and most surprising questionable position for this Clemson Offense is Running Back. Most thought that RB Phil Mafah would be the most consistent Tiger on Offense this season, but in November he has not been the same back. Mafah has clearly been playing hurt, and the decision to continue to play him has baffled Tiger Fandom. Mafah has just 83 yards on his last 37 carries against Power Conference opponents averaging just over 2 yards a carry (ESPN). Clemson has struggled to get the run game going, and it has made it infinitely harder for Clemson to win games. While against Pittsburgh, there were multiple starting Offensive Linemen out and not a lot of room to run. However, against South Carolina, there were multiple holes that Mafah just either did not hit or he did not hit them hard enough. Clemson has to give carries to their supporting Running Back cast behind Mafah as long as he is running hurt. Expect for RS/Fr Jay Haynes to take some meaningful carries on Saturday after he has had some good runs. Clemson just needs some life in the backfield along side Cade Klubnik, and they do not have it with Phil Mafah right now. SMU’s Defense is good at stopping the rush attack, so it will be interesting to see how Clemson treats that throughout the game.

While the Defensive Coaching Staff has caught most of the blame from Tiger Fans, even with how LaNorris Sellers torched the Defense, it was less than fault than the Offense. The Tiger Defense forced 3 turnovers on Saturday which resulted in ZERO points for Clemson. Even though Clemson did not take advantage of the turnovers, the Defense still allowed just 17 points even with being put in bad field position because of poor punting. Clemson’s Defense has not looked the same this year, but the loss against South Carolina was not just their fault. The main mistake made by the Defense this past weekend was missed tackles. LaNorris Sellers forced 18 missed tackles himself which got him out of multiple sack opportunities for Clemson. The other mentionable mistake was the lack of playing time for Freshman Linebacker Sammy Brown. Brown was added into the Clemson starting lineup because of the 4-3 formation that the Tigers decided to start the game with. Brown was easily the best Defensive player on the field; however, for some reason in the fourth quarter, Defensive Coordinator Wes Goodwin decided to play Nickel (only 2 Linebackers and 5 Defensive Backs) leaving Brown off the field. This costly mistake cost the Tigers and allowed for a 10 point quarter from the Gamecocks. Clemson faces another expectation running team on Saturday, and expect to see the 4-3 formation a lot unless DC Wes Goodwin just wants to get fired. The Clemson Defensive Line played one of their best games of the year against South Carolina in creating pressure, but they could not finish the sacks or tackles for loss in the backfield. The Tigers finished the day with 3 sacks, but could have had at least 7 (ESPN). T.J. Parker and Peter Woods were as advertised, but just could not finish. These two need to have another game in finding success in creating pressure, yet they need to finish. SMU has had one of the best Offensive Line in the country this season, and it will be interesting to see how the Clemson DL treats them coming off of their best performance from a pressure stand point all season. The Clemson Linebackers will also play a vital role in this game with stopping RB Brashard Smith. As I have mentioned multiple times this season, the Linebackers are Clemson’s best group on Defense when all three of them play at the same time. Barrett Carter’s and Wade Woodaz’s success on Saturday will depend on how often Sammy Brown is playing along side them. All three are difference makers, but Brown has showcased something different this season. His nose for the football just makes everyone better, and it is a crime to ever have him standing on the sidelines. Clemson’s Secondary is coming off an decent performance forcing some tough throws and getting an interception, but their physicality is the main concern. Once Running Backs break through the second level to the Tigers Secondary, it is as if they do not want to make contact with the RB. Clemson’s Secondary needs physicality to help in the run game and that is main concern Saturday against a skilled running team. The Secondary will perform well through the air, but will they be able to help stop the run, especially if Graduate Safety R.J. Mickens is out. Mickens suffered an injury on the last actual Defensive snap of the game, and his status has not been given yet. If he does not play, expect RS/So Kylon Griffin to fill his role with help from Freshman Ricardo Jones.

SMU Preview:

The SMU Mustangs enter this contest 11-1 (8-0) after a stellar regular season in their first season in the ACC. The Mustangs are on a nine game win streak which was propelled by a QB change, and the development of now starting QB Kevin Jennings has helped SMU reach unseen heights. Jennings is a Redshirt Sophomore who has thrown for 2,746 passing yards, 19 TDs, and 7 INTs while rushing for 344 yards and 4 TDs on 83 carries (ESPN). Jennings is a smaller framed Quarterback, but his ability to move around the pocket and extend plays has been crucial for SMU all year long. Alongside Jennings in the backfield is Senior Transfer Running Back Brashard Smith. Smith, a former Miami Hurricane, has broke out onto the scene in his first year starting. Smith has accumulated 1,157 yards and 14 TDs while also catching 29 passes for almost 300 yards and 3 TDs (ESPN). Smith was primarily a receiving threat on the Hurricanes roster only for less than 200 yards in his three-year stint at Miami. SMU has allowed Smith to showcase his rushing ability, and it has helped establish their Offense along side a first-year starter at QB. Expect the Mustangs to run the ball early and often on Saturday to get their Offense going. Clemson has had trouble stopping the run all season, but will that trend continue in a win or go home game? Catching the ball for Jennings is a collection of eight guys including Brashard Smith. SMU’s top three Receivers all have 30 or 31 receptions, but Senior Slot Receiver Roderick Daniels Jr. leads the way with 502 yards. Right behind Daniels is Senior Key’Shawn Smith. Smith has 402 receiving yards and is tied for first in touchdowns with 5. Their last top target within the Receiving Corps is Junior Jordan Hudson who comes in with 363 yards and 5 touchdowns (ESPN). However, Hudson is recovering from an injury, but is expected to play on Saturday. Just like the Tigers, the Mustangs have a lot of reliance on their Tight-Ends. Whether it is blocking or catching the ball, SMU depends very heavily on their big pass catchers. Expect to see a lot of Junior TE R.J. Maryland and of Graduate Transfer Matthew Hibner (“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services”). Both guys have combined for 41 catches, over 600 yards, and 7 TDs (ESPN). As mentioned, these guys are not just a threat in catching the ball, but both guys can block well. It is as if SMU has another Offensive Lineman on the field when these guys block. The SMU Offensive Line has been terrific all season letting up just 12 sacks in 12 games (ESPN). This front has led the way for the Mustangs to average 39.2 points a game, and they will make it difficult for Clemson to create needed pressure to win. The Tigers Defense are hoping to continue to create turnovers since SMU’s Offense ranks 89th in giveaways per game, but Clemson’s Offense has to cash in on those opportunities unlike the South Carolina game (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”).

The Mustang Defense is top 25 in the country in points allowed per game; however, Clemson is one of the best Offenses that they have seen all season (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). This Defense is a very old group as they start only one underclassmen and a majority of their starters are Graduate players. SMU returned 8 out of their top 10 tacklers of last season, and it has showed in their production (“Sports Reference | Sports Stats, Fast, Easy, and Up-To-Date | Sports-Reference.com”). Leading the way for this Defense for the second straight season is Graduate Linebacker Kobe Wilson. Wilson is a second year Mustang and makes a difference all across the field. As mentioned, he leads the Mustangs in tackles, has 3 sacks, 2 INTs, and a forced fumble (ESPN). Beside Wilson on the field is fellow Linebacker Ahmad Walker. Walker is a Senior Transfer who has been with the Mustangs for two years as well as Wilson. Walker has a smaller frame, but his effort makes up for what he misses in height. He is a heavy hitter and Quarterback Cade Klubnik better slide early when Walker is headed his direction. With the help of these Linebackers, SMU has allowed only 101.5 rushing yards per game which is top ten in College Football (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Also contributing to this success is their Defensive Line. Leading the Mustangs in sacks is Junior Isaiah Smith and Senior Transfer Jahfari Harvey both with 6.5 (ESPN). Smith is following up his good Sophomore season with an even better one this year, and he has totaled 14.5 sacks in his career thus far. Harvey, a former Miami Hurricane, is a sixth-year player who is making up for a poor year last season for Miami. Harvey has just 17 sacks in his long career, but has been dangerous this season. The Clemson OL has a lot more to worry about other than these two edge rushers as the Mustangs rank 10th in sacks per game (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). The Tigers’ OL needs to have another performance like the one against South Carolina for Clemson and Cade Klubnik to find rhythm Offensively. The weak part of this SMU Defense lies in the Secondary like most teams Clemson has seen this season. SMU’s Secondary allows 240 passing yards a game which ranks 92nd in the country (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Clemson has been able to take advantage of poor performing Secondaries all season, but SMU is hoping to trick QB Cade Klubnik into some mistakes on Saturday. SMU has caught 15 interceptions all year which is one more than the Tigers have caught and ranks within the top 15 (“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats”). Klubnik has to continue to protect the ball like he has done all season, and Clemson’s key to winning can be through the air.

Keys to a Tiger Victory:

Stop the Run: Clemson has given up over 265 rushing yards in their past two contest even though one was against an FCS school. The SMU Mustangs love to run the football, and if they are able to successfully, it will be extremely difficult for Clemson to win. The Tigers have to play a consistent 4-3 formation with Sammy Brown as the Mike Linebacker. Clemson’s Defense was sort of containing QB LaNorris Sellers through three quarters until the Tigers took Sammy Brown out in the fourth, and Sellers ran all over the Defense. Sammy Brown is a must-play player for Clemson at this point, and cannot come out unless it is an obvious throwing down. Along with playing Sammy Brown, Clemson’s Defensive Line has to create pressure at the rate they did last weekend, but this time they need to wrap up and finish tackles. The Tigers had 3 sacks against South Carolina; however, they should have had 7 (ESPN). SMU’s Offensive Line blocks really well, and Clemson needs to create pressure in the run game as well as the pass to disrupt QB Kevin Jennings.

Throw that Rock: Quarterback Cade Klubnik has been fantastic all year, and he has even protected the football at one of the best rate in the country. SMU’s passing defense has not been very stellar this season ranking in the bottom half of the country while their rush defense is top 10. The Tigers have had a Running Back Problem for the past 4 weeks, so the way to avoid that is to just put the ball in Cade’s hands every play. Clemson still has a little bit of breathe right now because of the performances of Cade Klubnik, so they need to let him throw the ball all across the field on Saturday. The coaching staff does not need to get conservative if Clemson has a lead, they need to just let Klubnik air it out. For Clemson to win on Saturday, Quarterback Cade Klubnik will need to total over 320 yards and 3+ TDs.

Out-Talent Them: I believe Clemson out-talented South Carolina in almost every position on the field on Saturday, but conservative situational play calling inhibited Clemson’s talent. Clemson has the 5th most talented roster in College Football according to 247 sports while SMU has the 25 the most talented roster (“2025 247Sports Composite Player Rankings”). The Tigers showcased their ability to make plays this past weekend even in a loss, but Clemson will need those same types of plays made on Saturday to secure the ACC Championship. The Receivers need to catch 50-50 balls, the Linebackers need to stop the run, the Defensive Line needs to play to the standard at which they can play at, and the Offensive Line needs to dominate the trenches. Clemson can out-talent the SMU Mustangs, but will the play calling be in favor of that. The Tigers need to make the most big plays on Saturday to win and prove that could possibly make some noise in the Playoff.

Tiger Watch: Sammy Brown

Many could have guessed that Freshman Linebacker Sammy Brown was going to be the Tiger to watch this week after reading what was wrote before this, but his impact is needed. Sammy Brown is all over the field when he is in the game. He is 4th in total tackles and 2nd in sacks for the Tigers even with his limited playing time (ESPN). Brown cannot be on the sideline on Saturday or the rest of the year especially against SMU who excels at running the ball. DC Wes Goodwin is still coaching for his job, and it is hard for me to believe that he would willingly not play Sammy Brown after seeing his impact. Sammy Brown will be the difference maker in this game, and it make not even be his decision whether or not he makes that difference.

Painter’s Prediction:

Clemson has controlled their own destiny at two points throughout this wild College Football season. Both times, the Tigers have fallen short and left themselves dependent on others. Clemson once again controls their own destiny for the third time this season. It is unfamiliar to fans that the Tigers have fallen short because of the success Clemson has had this past decade. Will Clemson let another opportunity fall flat on Saturday? It is hard to imagine Clemson letting three chances go in one singular season. The Tigers will take advantage of the passing game on Saturday in route to Cade Klubnik’s second ACC Championship Game MVP. Clemson will win 31-17 and will go to their first Playoff since the 2020 season. Clemson opened as a 2 point favorite; however, the line has moved 4.5 points towards SMU and Clemson is a 2.5 point underdog. This is the first game Clemson has not been favored since Week 1. My prediction tells us to take the Tigers to win. I am currently 9-3 in predictions and 7-5 ATS.

Sources:

“NFL Draft Guide, Mock Drafts, News | Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services.” Ourlads.com, 2024, www.ourlads.com/.

“TeamRankings.com: Sports Predictions, Rankings & Stats.” Www.teamrankings.com, www.teamrankings.com/.

“Sports Reference | Sports Stats, Fast, Easy, and Up-To-Date | Sports-Reference.com.” Sports-Reference.com, 2019, www.sports-reference.com/.

ESPN. “ESPN.” ESPN.com, 2019, www.espn.com/.

“2025 247Sports Composite Player Rankings.” 247Sports, 2024, 247sports.com/Season/2024-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/.